Influence Of Climate Change On Warming/Cooling Energy Consumption And Optimization

Climate change is characterized chiefly by global warming. The issue of climate change has become one of great significance and common concern in the international society. Climate change is not only an environment issue, but also a development issue. In the final analysis, it is a development issue. Now, China is establishing resource-economic and environment-friendly society. Thus, one of the great challenges for developments of meteorology, and even national economy and society to respond threats caused by climate change, save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emission, as well as achieve harmony between man and nature. Climate change has great effect on national energy security and closely relates to warming and cooling.The paper studies the effect of climate change on national energy consumption on winter wanning and summer cooling, and makes optimum analysis on proper time to begin warming and cooling, including:1. To systematically analyze the climate change in China since 1949 and great weather events, such as temperature, precipitation and high temperature, etc, which have close relation with energy consumption; also studies the effect of climate change on national energy security and researches the progress on energy consumption on warming and cooling in home and abroad.2. On the basis of analyzing average change in air temperature of every province and respective capital, analyzes the degree day's change in warming and cooling in nearly 50 years.3. To study the effect of climate change on warming and cooling, and establish corresponding evaluation mode, taking Beijing, Shanghai and Xi'an (northwest China's Shan'xi province) as typical cities.4. To analyze the effect of climate change on warming and cooling in Nanjing (in south China's Jiangsu Province), a typical city, and establish long-term prediction mode of temperature change and electric power demand, which is able to prove a causal connection between temperature change and electric power demand.5. Under the effect of average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and other weather elements, when to reach comfortable condition through weather element but not using common energy, as coal or electric power.In the paper, there are some novel points as followings:1. We use techniques of degree-day method, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test of econometric methods to study the effect of climate change on warming and cooling energy. This is a combination of qualitative and quantitative studies, with quantitative research as the majority. Besides, research data is comprehensive and verified, concerning on the meteorology, economics and etc.2. The paper analyzes the HDD, CDD changes in China, introduces climate change into social and economic research for first time, and studies the distribution and temporal & spatial features of HDD and CDD. In details, based on the analysis of average temperature variations in every province and the corresponding capital all over China, the responding HDD, CDDcharacteristics are drawn.3. To systematically research the effect of climate change on warming and cooling, the paper analyzes the connections between air temperature and actual energy consumption in some typical cities dominated by different climate, on which a formula is established to stand for the temperature influence to energy use. With global warming, actual warming period and plan should be adjusted. For instance, warming period in Xi'an can be shortened 18 days in average. And, 14% annual energy can be saved.4. The study shows that maximum electrical load and total power consumption are closely related to air temperature of the study day. Then comparisons of the sensitivity of power load to temperature change are performed in Nanjing and Beijing, as representing the South and North China, respectively.5. The paper employs heating period, comfort period and comfort but a little cool period which are passive cooling/heating periods, and cooling days in every major city in China. These results provide a scientific basis for rationally usage of conventional energy to the government and related authorities.