Analysis On The Demand Of Cobalt In China Based On System Dynamics

Cobalt is a kind of important strategic mineral resource for the development of economy and society.It has been applied in many fields,including battery manufacturing industry,electronic products manufacturing industry and carbide manufacturing industry.The consumption of cobalt has grown in China with the development of national economy.Due to the population of environment-friendly concepts and mobile devices,the consumption of cobalt in China has been driven into a fast-growing period in the recent years.China has been the largest consumer in the world since 2007,and China will remain in this seat in the foreseeable future.But meanwhile,China is also a country that lack of cobalt.China owns only 1% of world's cobalt reserves in 2015.All these things above mean that there are some big potential risks on the supply of cobalt in China which,may not only influence the cobalt related industries,will also influence the sustainable development of national economy.Thus predicting the future consumption and the supply of cobalt in China while making clear of the scope and the quantities of cobalt application can promote the planning of the Chinese cobalt industries development and guide the sustainable development of national economy in China.In this dissertation,we have collected and analysis the related data of cobalt resources and researched the history and current situation of cobalt in the world and in China,and have showed the situation of reserves,productions,consumptions,trades and prices of cobalt.Based on the theory of mineral resources demand and the theory of economic supply and demand,the author analyzed the consumption and supply of cobalt resources in China in method of system dynamics,and found out the main factors that was related and have established consumption system dynamics model of cobalt resource based on the researches above.Through the model sensitivity test we can see that factors that impact of China's cobalt resources consumption most is the GDP growth rate,which is followed by the natural population growth rate and the ratio of industrial structure.And the consumption of cobalt resources in different scenarios shows that there is a positive correlation between the consumption of cobalt resources and the growth rate of GDP.We can see from the prediction that both the consumption and the supply of cobalt resources will keep in upward trend in future,but the increment of consumption will exceed that of supply,leading to the gradual increment of the gaps between the domestic demand and supply of cobalt resources.In addition,it is predicted that most cobalt will be consumed for battery manufacturing,and the import will still be the most important way for cobalt supply in China.At the end of the dissertation,we gave some conclusions and policy recommendations based on the researches that we have made based on the above situation,put forward the corresponding conclusions and policy recommendations.