Research On Nonlinear Vitae System Model Of Urban Disaster Risk Management

Because of the high density of population, economic and culture, cities are very vul-nerable to disaster as the great hazard-affected bodies. When disaster occurs, cities will be the hazard-affected bodies of disaster, and will lead to huge losses inevitably. With the rapid development of cities and the high speed of urbanization, disaster has been an important challenge for the development of human being. In some important cities, urban disaster not only threat the safety of cities but also related to the safety and stability of cities. Therefore, disaster management especially the risk management has attracted more and more research interests.In the second section, this paper focus on the aids of cities after disaster and the concept of Vitae Index is proposed. Based on the concept model of Vitae System, the fund invested into the disaster affected region is divided into three parts according to circumstance factor, economy factor and community factor. By using Analytical Hierarchy Process, the relative weights of those three parts in Vitae system are given. When cities under multiple low-frequency-high-impact disaster, the fund of post-disaster cities should be optimally managed according to the weights to achieve harmony.Water resources management has become the major management problem of cities. In the third section, we focus on the water resources consumption in urban disaster risk. Ac-cording to the data of the real water resources consumption and total productive capacity of Jiangsu Province from year 2002 to 2008, the gray relational coefficients and gray relational entropy are calculated and analyzed the relationship between gray relational entropy and time. We can get that water resources are tend to be wasted faster in economically devel-oped regions while more reasonable used in economically developing regions. Furthermore, the Logistic-model is used to simulate and forecast domestic water consumption of cities. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the feasibility of the method is verified and the do-mestic water resources consumption of Jiangsu Province are forecasted in the next decade.In the four section, a nonlinear differential model for Integrated Drought Risk Man-agement is introduced in this paper and analyzed the trend of water resources consumption under different management function. When cities are always under the threat of drought, adaptive management of water resources consumption would led to fluctuation. When cities are in the cycle threat of drought, the linear function would lead water resources consump-tion into chaotic state. Considering the cities'response capabilities and disaster management capacity factors, we propose the model of the cities'comprehensive drought risk manage- ment.In the end, conclusions and outlooks are given, which summarize the main contents of this paper and point the existing problems.