Regional Water Consumption Characteristics And Trend Forecast Under The Most Stringent Water Resources Management System

With the rapid economic and social development and the continuous improving industrialization in our country,the problems have become prominent increasingly such as the shortage of water resources,the deterioration of water environment and the degradation of water ecosystems.The concept of the most stringent water resources management system is proposed in 2009.“The three red lines”and“The four systems”plays main role in it and the total amount of water used is the one of important assessment for it.In this case,this paper are reviewed systematically the development history and implementation status of China's most stringent water resources management system,analyzed the evolution characteristics of total water consumption and sub-item water consumption in the country,and analyzed the change characteristics of the total amount of water consumption and the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system in these typical areas.Using the GM(1,1)model forecasts the total national future water consumption and sub-item water consumption.The results could be comparative analyzed with other relative results.The main research and the results for this article are summarized as follows:(1)According to the assessment results of the most stringent water resources management system in 2014,Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu province,Shandong province,and Zhejiangprovince got excellent assessment grades.Also based on the assessment results of the most stringent water management system in 2016,the assessment grades of Jiangsu province,Zhejiang province,Shandong province,Beijing,and Chongqing are excellent.Therefore,the implementation of the most stringent water resources management systems in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Jiangsu province,Zhejiang province and Shandong provinces are good,and the situation in the northwest region are not very good.(2)Using the data from the China Water Resources Bullet from 1998 to 2016,it analyzed the changes of national water consumption and itemized water.The results shows that the total amount of water in the country is showing an increasing trend from 543.538 billion cubic meters in 1998 to 604 billion cubic meters in 2016.Domestic water,industrial water and agricultural water were increased from 54.292 billion cubic meters,112.6 billion cubic meters,and 376.63 billion cubic meters in 1998 to 82.16 billion cubic meters,130.8 billion cubic meters,and 376.8 billion cubic meters in 2016 respectively.And the amount of water consumption in the eco-environment were raised from 7.946 billion cubic meters in 2003 to14.26 billion cubic meters in 2016.The actual irrigation water consumption of farmland showed a slowly decreasing trend,falling from 488m~3/ha in 1998 to 380m~3/ha in 2016;The water consumption of the industrial added value of 10,000 yuan also showed a downward trend from 337m~3/ten thousand yuan in 1998 to 52.8m~3/ten thousand yuan in 2016.The rapid increase in the total amount of water consumption were contained effectively by the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system.(3)According to the characteristics of regional water consumption,it selects some typical provinces to analyze the changes of total water consumption and the implementation effect before and after by implementing the most stringent water resources management system.The results shows that the total amount of water consumption in Heilongjiang province,Henan province and Yunnan province showed a slowly increasing trend during the period from 2000 to 2014.The total amount of water in Zhejiang province showed a decreasing trend and the agricultural water consumption accounted a large proportion in the total water consumption.Due to the significant decreasing in agricultural water consumption in Henan province,the total use of water has declined significantly.(4)The GM(1,1)model was used to simulate and forecast the national water consumption and sub-item water consumption,and the results were compared with related results.The relative errors of the traditional GM(1,1)model and the improved GM(1,1)model are 0.86%and 0.23%respectively.The improved GM(1,1)model has better simulation results.The two models predicts that the total national water consumption in 2020will be 662.096 billion cubic meters and 621.508 billion cubic meters respectively,which are slightly lower than the 2020“three red lines”water consumption control indicators and other existing research results.The results can provide the technical support for the most stringent water resources management system assessment.