Research On The Design And Method Of The Effect Evaluation Index System For Earthquake Emergency Comprehensive Exercise

Earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise is the key link in the earthquake emergency preparedness work, which is playing an more and more important role. To carry out the earthquake emergency exercise is not only beneficial to improve the defense capability of the earthquake, but also effective to test the effectiveness of earthquake emergency plan. In recent years, the earthquake emergency exercise on a national scale is developed regularly, whose influence is more and more widely, but the simulation and effectiveness was not significant. Discussing and analyzing how to solve the above problems and improve the quality and effectiveness of comprehensive earthquake emergency exercise, and to really play a role in the plan testing, perfect preparation, training team, running-in mechanism and popular science propaganda and other aspects should be imperative.In this paper, combined with the characteristics of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise and make full use of the guiding role of earthquake emergency exercise effect evaluation. Hope that through the implementation of "promoting construction by evaluation" to regulate the system of comprehensive emergency exercise. Therefore, the focus of this paper is to design a set of scientific effect evaluation system of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise, at the same time, the evaluation system should simple and workable, suitable for the use of local government. For this reason, after the index system was built. I consult with the relevant experts of Hubei Provincial Government Emergency Management Office. The ultimate hope is to provide a set of fitting the China's national conditions and feasible effect evaluation index system of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise. The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1) Systematically analysis of the theory and practice characteristic of the earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise. On the one hand,analysis the concept and characteristics of emergency exercise and comprehensive exercise. On the other hand, summarizes present situation, influence factors and the general process combining with the earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise paper.(2) Based on the essence of “Hall Three Dimensions Structure” theory, construct the multi-agent earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise effect evaluation index system. On the basis of summarize and draw lessons from other theories in the field of this system, build the professional evaluation and assessment of the participants as the main body of the earthquake emergency exercise effect evaluation index system, including 3 first-level indicators of professional evaluation, respectively, before the exercise, among the exercise and after the exercise; To determine 10 representative second-level indicators which on the basis of the first-level indicators, three-level indicators is according to the conditions specified in the second-level indicators, contains 37 indicators. In participant's assessment, to design 3 first-level indicators which consists of training before the exercise, participate among the exercise and increase after the exercise, as well as 9 second-level indicators, together constitute a effect evaluation index system of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise.(3) Establish the earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise effect evaluation model. First of all, using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to build two judgment matrixes, calculated the weight of each index. Secondly, based on multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, establish earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise evaluation model. Finally, through the five grade evaluation standard to analyze the effect of Shiyan one hundred thousand people in earthquake emergency evacuation and rescue exercise, the scientific nature and operability of the model was verified.(4) Put forward to some suggestions to improve the effect of the earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise. Mainly from the following 6 aspects to put forward specific improvement suggestions: each target, scene design, coordination, the masses participation, exercise evaluation, plan improving.