Research On Wheat Import Trade Fluctuation Of China And Security Maintenance Mechanism Form Industrial Security Perspective

China has the largest wheat consuming group in the world, which occupies the most important position in the globe. Meanwhile, China is also one of the main countries of producing wheat. It has the largest scale of producing wheat. In these years, affected by the international macroeconomic environment and domestic trade policies, China wheat import trade fluctuates violently. It threatens the healthy development of wheat industry. The regular pattern and underlying reason of China wheat import trade fluctuation are going to be researched promptly. How to iron the wheat import trade fluctuation is going to be solved urgently.From industrial security perspective, the indicator system of wheat import fluctuation is developed according to wheat import trade data form 1980 to 2013. Factors of wheat import fluctuation are applied to the empirical research with the help of factor analysis model. Wheat import fluctuation of China form 1980 to 1995 is dominated by the factors of price level and macroeconomic policies. Wheat import fluctuation of China form 1996 to 2006 is dominated by the factors of agricultural development. Wheat import fluctuation of China form 2007 to 2013 is dominated by the factors of macroeconomic policies.Based on the factor analysis of wheat import trade fluctuation, correlation analysis indicator system of wheat import fluctuation is developed. Grey correlation model is applied to the empirical research about correlation between wheat import trade volume and influencing factors. From 1980 to 1995, the comprehensive grey correlation degree between wheat import trade fluctuation and urban citizen consumer price index is 0.7497, the comprehensive grey correlation degree between wheat import trade fluctuation and citizen consumer price index is 0.7187. From 1996 to 2006, the comprehensive grey correlation degree between wheat import trade fluctuation and agricultural development factors (domestic wheat production and gross agricultural production) are the highest,0.7113 and 0.6385 respectively. From 2007 to 2013, the comprehensive grey correlation degree between wheat import trade fluctuation and exchange rate is 0.6481, the highest level during that period.Based on extension-matter model, security assessment index system of wheat import trade fluctuation is developed. Security level of wheat import trade fluctuation of China is assessed from 1980 to 2013. From 1980 to 1996, the security level fluctuates between the status of negative insecurity and security. From 1997 to 2013, the security level fluctuates between the status of positive insecurity and negative insecurity.Security maintenance mechanism of wheat import trade fluctuation is developed, which includes subsystem of trade fluctuation data, factor analysis subsystem of trade fluctuation, grey correlation analysis subsystem of trade fluctuation, security assessment subsystem of trade fluctuation and maintenance measure subsystem of trade fluctuation, which are linked by seven paths. Security maintenance mechanism of China wheat import trade fluctuation is divided into fundamental module, functional module and feedback module by the seven paths mentioned above. Social resource and subjective initiative are maneuvered sufficiently by the Security maintenance mechanism of China wheat import trade fluctuation. According to the status quo, the strategies of ironing China wheat import trade fluctuation are proposed.