An Empirical Study On The Impact Of International Food Price Fluctuation On China's Food Security

In the process of the development of human society,food has always played an indispensable role.It is the foundation upon which humankind depends,and it is also the precondition for human beings to carry out all other activities.Food security has also been a hot topic in the global academic community..It has been 17 years since China joined the World Trade Organization(WTO)in 2001.The relationship between China's grain market and the international grain market has also been closely linked.The fluctuation of the international grain market has also affected China's food security issues from time to time.As an international grain-producing country and a major grain-reducing country,how to ensure the supply and demand of grain in the global economic integration today is the key to the development of the domestic grain market.Through in-depth study of the fluctuation of international food prices and then to grasp the international law of food price fluctuations,it has very practical significance for China's food production and food security.In addition to the introduction,this article is divided into five parts.The second part introduces the current academic research on the international food price volatility and the status quo of China's food security through literature review.The third part reviews and analyzes the characteristics of international food price volatility through the statistical data for the past 35 years.The stage introduced the characteristics of the fluctuations in each stage and the reasons for the formation of the fluctuations.At the same time,the third part carried out a descriptive study on the current status of food security in China from the aspects of production and demand status,inventory status,and import and export status,and then introduced the international The transmission mechanism of food prices to China's food security;the fourth and fifth sections mainly introduce the impact of international food price fluctuations on food security.The fourth part starts from the aspect of China's food production and demand security,and studies the impact of international food price fluctuations on China's grain production and demand balance.Through the introduction of the grain production and demand balance index,and the annual data of the spot market prices of international corn,wheat,rice,and soybean from 1990 to 2015,the VEC model was used for empirical analysis;the fifth part is from China's food trade security.In this regard,in combination with the VAR model,using pulse response functions,variance decomposition,and Granger causality tests,we studied the impact of international food price fluctuations on China's food trade security.The conclusions of the above studies indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign grain prices and China's grain production and demand balance.The international prices of different types of grain also have different effects on the balance of grain production and demand in China.The impact of international food prices on China's grain import and export is large,but the impact of China's grain exports on international food prices is relatively small,and then put forward some targeted policy recommendations to ensure China's food security.