| Wheat is one of the main grain crops in China,having been being an important grain variety to which the state attaches much importance,with the perennial sowing area and yield accounting for 25% and 22% of the total grain sowing area and yield respectively.The national grain policy has been paying attention to the fluctuation of wheat.And wheat is involved in almost every grain price reform.Despite the relatively simple industrial chain of wheat and the fluctuation less severe than that of soybean and corn,with the gradual deepening of market-oriented reform of grains and the trend of substitution of wheat for corn in the field of feed consumption,the fluctuation of wheat gradually shows the obvious periodic trend,which has attracted the attention of academia and the government.Therefore,it is of great significance to develop further understanding of the characteristics of wheat price changes and carry out the macro intervention in wheat and other grain markets by making use of the law of market fluctuation.Based on the research background,this research mainly studies the grain price fluctuations,combining literature research methods with empirical analysis methods,and comprehensively using quantitative empirical methods for research.First of all,the three core concepts of grain price fluctuations,grain purchasing and storage systems,and food security involved in this research are clearly defined,and the price fluctuation theory,public product theory,food security theory and macro-control theory are carried out.Combing and reviewing will provide theoretical support for the development of the following article;secondly,based on the research conclusions of the existing literature and related theoretical foundations,a theoretical analysis of grain price fluctuations,including the formation and evolution of grain prices,The characteristics and causes of price fluctuations,and the evolution and characteristics of the grain purchasing and storage system;then,based on the main issues to be studied in this study,using vector autoregressive model(VAR),empirical analysis of grain price fluctuations and grain purchasing and storage The relationship between the systems,finally got the research conclusion.The main conclusions of this study are: wheat sales and wheat production have no significant linear effects on wheat prices.The four variables of wheat savings,wheat net profit,wheat costs,and own prices have significant effects on wheat prices.Among them,wheat Savings negatively affect wheat prices;wheat cost,wheat net profit and time trends positively affect wheat prices.After impulse response analysis,when the lag period is not long,the price of wheat will respond positively to the fluctuations in the net profit of wheat,the cost of wheat and the price of wheat itself;fluctuations in the amount of wheat savings will make the price of wheat negative.Response: As the lag period increases,the response of wheat price to the impact of the other three variables has not changed,but the response to the impact of its own price has changed,from a positive response to a negative response;When the lag period is long enough,the response of wheat prices to the impact of wheat savings,wheat net profit,wheat costs,and its own price will also stabilize.After variance decomposition,it is found that in the short run,the wheat price itself can best explain its price fluctuations;in the long run,the most influential factor for wheat price fluctuations is the net profit of wheat,followed by the amount of wheat savings and the wheat itself.Price,and finally the cost of wheat.Based on the research conclusions obtained,this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions: macro-control policies should fully respect the longterm rising trend of wheat price in accordance with the law of economic and social development,follow the law of wheat price fluctuation,use policies to stabilize wheat price and protect food security. |
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