Emergency Grain Demand Forecasting Research Under The Condition Of Natural Disaster

Our country is vast in territory, the geological conditions and natural conditions are extremely complex. China has been always suffering from all kinds of natural disasters, and cause major losses to the lives and property of the people.After the natural disaster, we need to rescue in the first time, therefore, a lot of emergency supplies should be transported to the affected areas, especially for emergency grain needs, because it is about the basic survival of the people in natural disaster areas.In order to transport emergency grain to the natural disaster areas in the first time and play the most important role, we should store them in advance.From the above, it can be seen that it is very meaningful to study the forecast of emergency food demand in order to respond to natural disasters.This Paper regards demand forecast as the research object, combined with the characteristics of emergency food and natural disasters to study the forecast of emergency food demand for natural disasters.The main work of the paper is as follows:In the First place, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the demand forecasting of general logistics, emergency logistics and grain logistics, and it also reviews the research of emergency food logistics, then it summarizes the present status of the research, and found that there is little research on the forecast of emergency food demand for natural disasters.Thus,we put forward the main problems and the research method and the possible innovation in research for this article.In the second place, this paper make a detailed analysis of the factors affecting emergency food demand forecasting for the natural disasters, and classify these factors into three categories:natural disaster emergency area coefficient, natural disaster risk coefficient and potentially affected population. At the same time, the definition and calculation method of natural disaster risk coefficient and natural disaster emergency area coefficient are given, and to the fact that the historical data of natural disasters is missing,this paper employ the risk assessment method based on the index system instead of the historical data of natural disaster. In addition, calculation method of earthquake emergency area coefficient which is given by predecessors has been improved, in detail, we use traffic coefficient to displace population density and add factor of daily storage level of food,which makes it more suitable for the study.Finally, with consideration of the factors of emergency food demand forecasting under natural disasters, this paper establish a model of emergency food demand forecasting response to the natural disasters, and this model assumes that the quantity of emergency food is proportionate to the natural disaster emergency area coefficient, natural disasters risk coefficient and the potential number of people affected by the natural disasters, and according to the characteristics of emergency food,adding the concept of response time constraint. Finally, through the empirical research on certain areas of city Z in eastern China, propose the quantity of emergency food that city Z should keep in advance respond to the natural disasters, and the calculation results show that it meets the actual situation, which proves the validity of the model, with a certain reference value.