| Under the background of global climate change and rapid socio-economic development,Shanghai is vulnerable to natural disasters and man-made disasters,which has brought challenges to Shanghai’s emergency management and emergency supplies work.An important task in the disaster response process is to ensure the safety of the affected people and social stability,and the food is an important material for guarantee the lives of the people and social stability in the affected areas.At present,there are many researches on emergency supplies in China and abroad are focus on the macro scope.There are few researches on the supply and demand of food materials,and in particular there is a lack of quantitative research.Therefore,it is necessary to study the supply and demand distribution of food emergency supplies.Based on the in-depth combing of existing emergency material dispatching technologies in China and abroad,this study based on the sixth census data in 2010 and dietary nutrients of Chinese residents in 1988 and 2013,and use the flood inundation result simulated by the MIKE21 hydrological model as disaster scenario,the per capita demand for emergency supplies of people in different ages and genders in Shanghai,and combines the physical reserves of rice,baby milk powder and mineral water at all supermarkets in Shanghai to analysis the supply and demand of food emergency supplies in Shanghai.The main findings and results are as follows:(1)The total supply of baby milk powder based on supermarkets in Shanghai is about 49.8t;the total supply of mineral water is about 21,702,759L;the total supply of rice is about 7,545.2t.Regardless of the disaster scenario,the total potential demand for baby milk powder in Shanghai is approximately 118.9t;the total potential demand for mineral water is approximately 34,528,794L;the total potential demand for rice is approximately 15,190.4t.Under the flood disaster scenario,there are 2,984 communities in Shanghai affected by floods.The total potential demand for baby milk powder is approximately 55.8t;the total potential demand for mineral water is approximately 17,894,143L;and the total potential demand for rice is approximately 7,811.6 t.The total supply of baby milk powder in the flooded area is approximately 24.9 t;the total supply of mineral water is approximately 11,160,016L;the total supply of rice is approximately 3,691.7 t.Therefore,under the assumption of the flood disaster scenario in this paper,the demand-supply rate of emergency foods for the three types of food in flooded areas can reach 44.62%,62.37% and 47.26%.(2)From the perspective of spatial distribution,the distribution of demand and supply of Shanghai’s food emergency supplies are similar,and the high demand and supply value of the emergency food supplies are concentrated in the inner city within the outer ring.On the other hands,there are some districts located Shanghai’s suburb,such as Pudong,Qingpu,Fengxian and Jinshan,the demand and supply value is relatively lower.However,there are some regions in the center of these district with high demand and supply value.(3)This study uses the two-step floating catchment area method to analyze the accessibility of three types of food emergency materials received by all community residents’ committees in Shanghai,inner city and the central areas of each suburban district have similar result.These areas with high accessibility;because most of supermarkets are mostly concentrated in inner city and the downtown area of suburban district,such as Baoshan.Qingpu,Pudong,Jinshan,Qingpu.(4)The Hot Spot Analysis detect the spatial patterns within the demand and supply of food emergency supplies,it can be seen that the hot spot area of the three types of food emergency supplies in Shanghai are concentrated in the central urban area within the outer ring,which is basically consistent with the distribution of the three emergency supplies,and the cold spot area of food emergency supplies are distributed in other areas except the central urban area.(5)The So VI result indicated that the distribution of Shanghai’s social vulnerability to natural disasters at neighborhood committee level,and there have a certain spatial overlap between high social vulnerability communities and unbalanced supply and demand of emergency supplies communities.Communities with insufficient food emergency supplies may suffer serious disasters.According to the spatial analysis results of 5432 communities in Shanghai,communities with strong social vulnerability and three types of food emergency supplies in short supply are mainly distributed in Pudong and Chongming,which is largely influenced by the population’s distribution and the distribution of supermarket service facilities.These communities should strengthen the reserve of social emergency supplies,not only relying on supermarket supplies and government assistance.The communities also need to store emergency supplies.Residents living in these neighborhood committees need to raise awareness of disasters and try to reserve a certain amount of food at home,communities should strengthen disaster warning and community self-rescue and rescue measures.This study analyzed the supply and demand of Shanghai’s food emergency supplies after the disaster at neighborhood committee level in Shanghai.The result indicated that the distribution of Shanghai where with a shortage of food emergency supplies under the disaster scenario and strong social vulnerability.The analysis method has further revealed the spatial pattern of food supply and demand in Shanghai.Studying the food emergency food reserve system in Shanghai and exploring the problems and solutions in the emergency supply,it has great significance to improve Shanghai’s emergency material reserve work and enhancement of emergency material support capabilities. |
