Forecasting Method Of Emergency Material Demand Based On Disaster Chain

Under the new situation,some new unstable factors threatening the living environment of the human beings are increasing.The intertwining of multi-hazard disasters have forced people to scientifically understand the new characteristics of disasters and improve emergency response capability.Scientific forecast method of emergency material demand can help to deepen the study of material support capacity building,solve the problems of emergency material management and enhance the scientific and economic mobilization of emergency materials in China.Therefore,in view of the new characteristics of emergencies and the premise of the emergency material support process,it is very important to explore how the disaster chain affects the demand of emergency supplies.This paper first explores the relationship between disaster chain and emergency material demand.Disaster chain is divided into disaster point,disaster line and disaster surface,and analyze the dynamic link between them.Based on the background of the Zhouqu debris flow in Gansu Province,a dynamic model of the system based on the degree of disaster loss was established,and the dynamic disaster model was established.The relationship between the disaster nodes was analyzed by the earthquake,landslide,debris flow,human death and plague.The reliability of the model was analyzed by the matching degree between the predicted value and the actual value.On the basis of establishing the impact relationship of emergency material demand based on disaster chain,this paper uses the gray forecast method to realize the forecast of the emergency material demand,which aims to study how the death toll affects the emergency material demand.Taking drinking water as an example,GM(0,N)is used to predict the demand of drinking water by comparing the precision of GM(0,N)and GM(1,N)models.It is helpful to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the evolution of disaster chain and the demand of emergency materials.At the same time,it provides a link disaster system and emergency material demand.The method of forecasting can help to improve the efficiency of emergency material mobilization,and provide the basis for the country to formulate emergency material dispatching strategy and to prevent the disaster degree of emergencies.