| Since the reform and opening up,China's national strength has made remarkable achievements,the economy has been rapid growth,the corresponding expansion of the size of the city.To speed up the process of the city led to the prosperity of the real estate industry,the rapid growth of the average income of residents to buy the enthusiasm of more and more high,so there is a major city commercial housing dropped less than a day sold out,the property market a good city,residential investment amount is increasing every year,the sales area increased rapidly.The supply of the market caused by the soaring price of commercial housing.As China's economy has become a pillar industry of real estate,the price rises will affect the healthy and stable development of the real estate,so the real estate industry benign guidance becomes the introduction of appropriate effective regulation of real estate policy is particularly important.As the first tier cities in Wuhan,rising prices will also affect the healthy development of the city.Therefore,it is very valuable to study the price of commercial housing in Wuhan.Firstly,this paper makes clear the purpose and significance of the research,citing a large number of domestic and foreign literature as a theoretical basis,expounds the feasibility of the research,and provides a theoretical basis.Secondly,this paper analyzes the concept and characteristics of commodity housing price,and gives the factors that influence the price of commercial housing.The third chapter combines the current situation of Wuhan city commercial housing market,the Wuhan commodity residential market analysis,summed up the characteristics of the land market in Wuhan City,commercial housing supply and demand,and the average price of housing in recent years.The fourth chapter first introduces the related theory of the system dynamics,the system dynamics in the analysis on the issue of price advantage,and then combined with the influencing factors of housing price and Wuhan housing market situation,to establish a causal feedback map,analysis the main feedback loop in the graph,and draw the system flow chart,the construction of Wuhan City dynamics the price of commercial housing system model.The model consists of the price system,supply system,demand system,establish the model equation to determine the relationship between various variables,based on the statistical yearbook of Wuhan city per capita disposable income of residents,the average population,commercial housing sales area,the housing price to income ratio,and other data,using the system dynamics software Vensim the simulation of the model,the price curve is given from 2000 to 2015,2016 to 2022 and forecast the price trend.The fifth chapter based on the simulation model,by adjusting the cost of land,tax and bank loan interest rates for the three variables of policy simulation,to give the corresponding policy advice changes affecting the housing price regulation analysis. |
