Modeling And Simulation Of Industry Eco-Economic System In Jiangsu Province Based On System Dynamics

With the high-speed development of economy, the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection is becoming sharper and sharper, especially in Jiangsu Province, which has well-developed industries. Effective policies which are made based on industy eco-economic system is a key approach to solve the contradiction and achieve coordinated development of economy and ecology. Therefore, the study of industry eco-economy system’s internal mechanism, configuration optimization between industrial economy policies and industrial ecology policies, and different policy setting for different development stages, has important theory value and practical significance.Industry eco-economic system is a complex system, in which different industries output high economic value and a small amount of ecological pollution through moderate resource consumption under reasonable policies. It has characteristics of high order, multivariable, multi-loop, and nonlinear. This paper use system dynamic to analyse the causality and flow diagram of industry eco-economy system. Industry eco-economy system can be divided into four subsystems, including economic-output subsystem, pollution-emission subsystem, resource-consumption subsystem and policy-supporting subsystem. Economic-output subsystem, pollution-emission subsystem and resource-consumption subsystem support the basic operation of industry eco-economy system. Policy-supporting subsystem contains different policies of economic development, resource consumption and pollution emission, which are made by the government.First of all, system dynamics model is used to study the performance of different policy configuration and the impact of different policy configuration to ecological and economic’s short-term goals in the 12th five-year plan of Jiangsu Province. The result shows that the policy of industry investment and science-technology investment has reverse relationship with the policy of emission cap, environmental-protection investment and resource comprehensive utilization technology. The existing policy configuration can promote economic growth effectively, but do little work to the constraints of pollution emission and resource consumption. If the increasing speed of tertiary industry’s investment in fixed assets and science-technology investment increase to a high level with the increasing of GDP, the environmental-protection investment and the control power of pollution emission are higher, the performance of policy configuration will be improved and the goals in the 12th five-year plan of Jiangsu Province will be achieved.Secondly, aiming at the long-term development goal, this paper set three different scenarios, including the current scenario, new nomal scenario and optimal scenario. The result shows that if science-technology investment, the environmental-protection investment and the control power of pollution emission are higher, and the investment in fixed assets is lower, the current scenario can turn into new common scenario. If the investment in fixed assets increases sharply, science-technology investment and the environmental-protection investment and the control power of pollution emission keep increasing, the new common scenario can turn into optimal scenario.Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions based on the results above.