Analysis And Prediction Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In Construction Industry In Anhui Province

As a pillar industry of the country and society,the construction industry accounts for46.5% of the country’s energy consumption in the whole process,so it is important to focus on the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in the construction industry.The calculation and research of carbon emissions in the construction industry can help to better understand the low-carbon development status of China’s construction industry,and provide reference for research on energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s construction industry.Anhui Province is a province with great development potential in the Yangtze River Delta region,and as an important area for building energy consumption,its building energy consumption accounts for a large proportion of the construction industry in the province,and energy conservation and emission reduction work needs to be promoted urgently.Therefore,this study conducts an in-depth research on carbon emission measurement,analysis of influencing factors and prediction of the construction industry in Anhui Province,and provides practical suggestions for the economic and social development of Anhui Province and other provinces and cities in China.This paper firstly selects the basic data from the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Construction Industry and establishes the carbon emission measurement model of the construction industry based on the emission coefficient method,according to which the carbon emission of the construction industry in Anhui Province is measured between 2005 and 2020,and analyzes the current situation of carbon emission of the construction industry in Anhui Province.The STIRPAT expansion model is constructed from the relevant theoretical basis,and the industry index dimensions are expanded based on population,economy and technology,and 10 indexes such as urbanization rate,construction industry scale and GDP per capita are selected as influencing factors for analysis.In order to conduct a more in-depth study on the influencing factors of carbon emission in the construction industry,gray correlation analysis and STIRPAT model are used to screen out the key factors that have a greater influence on carbon emission in the construction industry.Finally,the BP neural network model with less error is selected to predict the carbon emissions of construction industry in Anhui Province from 2021 to2030.It is found that indirect carbon emissions account for about 92% of the carbon emissions generated by the construction industry in Anhui Province,which indicates that carbon emissions from the production of building materials such as cement and steel account for a significant portion of the construction industry.The significant influencing factors of carbon emissions from the construction industry in Anhui Province are GDP per capita,labor efficiency,construction intensity,urbanization rate,labor input,carbon intensity of energy consumption and energy intensity.The carbon emission forecast results show that the decreasing rate of construction carbon emission from 2021 to 2030 has slowed down,but the total amount still fluctuates.after 2025,the carbon emission shows a shaking down trend after climbing for a period of time,and the total carbon emission of Anhui construction industry is predicted to reach 84.82 million tons in 2030.Figure [nine] table [eighteen] reference [seventy-one]...