The Impact Of The Maritime Rights Event On Our Country’s Marine Economic Security: The Conduction Path And Effects

"China has four hundred million population, strict government organization andrelatively modern facilities.Is it difficult to imagine that the country will meet in thenarrow territory relative to its population?”113years ago, the doubt of Alfred Mahanstressed the necessity of the traditional continental country’s development. But withthe development of China’s Marine economy, environment, resources, Ocean rightsand interests, and industrial structure factors appeared, it pose a threat to the marineeconomic security. On the other hand, since the United Nations convention on the lawcame into effect in1994, countries of ocean power competition intensified, China’sproblems of marine rights and interests increased sharply. Maritime rights andinterests have a significant effect on the Marine economic security in our country.Based on the impact of Marine rights and interests on the Marine economic security,this paper discusses the following problems:1) the definition of Marine economicsecurity;2) threats factors to the Marine economic security;3) the risk of futureMarine rights and interests of events;4) maritime rights events’ impact on China’sMarine economic security. According to the above problems, this paper’s researchingwork focus on the following aspects.First, based on an overview of the domestic and international economic securityconcept and marine economic security concept, this paper defines concept of marineeconomic security as fundamental interests of marine economy in a state of riskcontrolled, and presents three aspects of the fundamental interests of China’s marineeconomy. And we come to a conclusion that the current dispute of our marine rightsand interests is due to the marine territorial disputes, narrow waters and historicalfactors.Secondly, in view of the threaten factors to the marine economic security, thisarticle combed the international environment, current situation which our marineeconomic security faced, the challenges and the Four major risk factors of Marine territorial sovereignty and marine demarcation, Marine resources and marine rightsdisputes internationalization that our marine rights and interests faced.Thirdly, aiming at the risk of the rights and interests of future marine, we collectthe maritime rights and interests data after2000of our countries and others and carryon the assignment of the warning level, the sample data of marine rights and interestsobtained. And on this basis, we build a statistical model to estimate the distributionfunction of marine rights and interests event. Based on the matlab program, we obtainthe parameters’ distribution function by using the method of maximum likelihoodestimation. Though this way, we can judge the probability of the risk of future Marinerights and interests.Finally, aiming at the impact effect of the Marine economic security in ourcountry caused by marine rights and interests, through the Causal loop diagram, thelinear and nonlinear relationship between variables of marine economic security, webuild the system dynamics model of the impact on China’s marine economic securitycaused by marine rights and interests, and carry on the simulation of three kinds ofsituations: marine rights and interests events happened frequently, The normal state ofthe events and the events basically won’t happen. Studies have found that thefrequently happened marine rights and interests events will have a great effect to thedevelopment of China’s marine economy. And make a inflection point to the growthrate of China’s Marine economy.