| In the process of modernization, urbanization, industrialization and employment structure have great relevance. Industrialization, which is the basic force promotes the development of urbanization, urbanization is the main carrier of industrialization, and employment structure effects industrialization and urbanization synchronously. This paper studies the coordination degree of industrialization,urbanization and employment structure, and gives quantitative analysis and trend forecast based on the statistic data in the recent years.The paper is divided into three parts:first of all, the analysis of coordination degree of urbanization and industrialization; Secondly, the correlation research of non-agricultural employment and urbanization rate. Lastly, the forecast of the proportion of the Non-agricultural employment.The coordination degree of the urbanization and industrialization plays an important role in the region's economic and society development. This part contains determining the variables contained by the urbanization and industrialization index; Standardization of the index; calculation of the degree; classifications for the eight minority areas.In the analysis of the employment's proportion of Non-agricultural and Urbanization rate,we use the nonlinear regression different from the simple regression model. This method can provide more accurate fitting between the two variables. Many nonlinear function are set out, then the most accurate one is adopted.The employment's proportion of Non-agricultural is one of the most important index in evaluating the progress of the industrialization. The accurate forecasting has very important and necessary to the Policy-making. In this part, the combination forecasting model is adopted, which is more accurate than single model. The Matlab software generates the next five years'data of the proportion of the Non-agricultural employment. |
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