Study On The Coordination And Relationship Among Industrialization, Urbanization And Agricultural Modernization In China

As lifestyles change in the process of social and economical development, social production divides to agricultural sector and industrial sector and social life divides to rural lifestyle and urban lifestyle. Agricultural sector can be seen as the earliest sector emerged in social economy to produce agricultural products and trade them in markets by making use of land resources, labor forces and to meet social needs. With technology progress and a clear social division of labor, the emergence of a variety of production machines and the accumulation of capital together with labor bring about further development of industry. The gathering of industrial production in space gives rise to the assemblage of non-agricultural production population, which thus forms the town. The flows of various essential productive factors of production such as land, labor, capital and technology in agricultural as well as industrial sectors between rural and urban areas has completed the configuration of resources in both time and space and helped to lead industrial division to specialized production of different industries. It also promotes the development of productive forces and labor productivity. Meanwhile, it pushes forward the formation and development of agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization (use "three modernizations" for short in the following paragraphs).Developments of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China’s social and economic progress demonstrate certain degrees of priority and interrelations. Our country implemented strategies to promote industry by occupying agricultural surplus products and strictly limiting migration from rural to urban in the early of New China. System of agricultural operation begun to change since the reform and opening-up in1978, but then the country shifted development focus to cities again. As the problems of agriculture and rural become more and more critical, the country abolished agriculture taxation and formulated new socialist countryside construction guidelines in recent years. Those development strategies lead to the problems of imbalanced industry-agriculture relationships and uncoordinated urban-rural relationships in China’s modernization process. The seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session of the Party has clearly put forward the major task of implementing further developments of industrialization and urbanization with the synchronization of agricultural modernization during the "12th Five-Year" period. Most areas in China step into industrialization medium term and have the conditions to development agriculture and rural by making use of subsides and investments from industry and urban.Therefore, this dissertation starts analysis with the interrelationships of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization during the course of China’s modernization. It analyses the influences and interacts among "three modernizations" and calculates degree of coordination in terms of "three modernizations" centers on agriculture and rural.Firstly, this dissertation interprets the allocation of production factors such as land resources, labor forces, capital and technology during the process of agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization based on theories including classical location theory, dual economic theory, growth pole theory and institutional change theory. It explains that the transitions from developing countries to developed industrial countries is based on the development of industry to promote the generation of cities and then to realize agricultural modernization. During the developments of "three modernizations", agricultural modernization is the foundation to provide productive factors for industrialization and create demands for urbanization; industrialization is the leading force to provide capital for urbanization and advanced technology, equipments and management mode for agricultural modernization; urbanization is the carrier to provide space for industrialization and conditions for the transfer of agriculture surplus labor.In clarifying the interrelationships of "three modernizations", this dissertation classifies the evolutionary phases of "three modernizations". It divides the development stages of industrialization based on GDP per-captia and non-agricultural employment rate, divides the development stages of agricultural modernization based on agricultural labor productivity and agricultural mechanization level, and divides the development stages of urbanization based on percentage of urbanization. Combining the six stage of relative indicators with agricultural mechanization rate, non-agricultural employment rate and urbanization rate and making horizontal comparison, we can get the basis to assess whether "three modernizations" in synchronic stages.According to the basis of classified phases of "three modernizations", our country is now in the middle and late periods of industrialization, in the initial implementation phase of agricultural modernization and in the accelerated phase of urbanization. The development of agricultural modernization has been lagging behind industrialization and urbanization. Using impulse response function to analyze the interactions of "three modernizations" from1980to2010, we find that the pulling effect on agricultural modernization from industrialization is significantly greater than the pulling effect on industrialization from agricultural modernization. It illuminates that conditions of industry nurturing agriculture has matured. View from urban-rural relations, the pushing effect on agricultural modernization from urbanization is significantly greater than the pushing effect on urbanization from agricultural modernization. It illuminates that the development of urbanization in the middle and late period can’t only rely on resources factor accumulation from agricultural and rural access, putting certain urbanization benefits to agricultural and rural construction will bring better results.To further illustrate the coordination degree of "three modernizations", this dissertation builds Agriculture-Industry-Urban Composite System (AIUCS), uses analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis to confirm the sub-criteria layer of "three modernizations" and selects appropriate evaluation indexes. It calculates the score of sub-criteria layer of subsystem and its composite score by using the data from1991to2010. Based on the score of AIUCS, it builds measure scaling function to calculate coordination degree within subsystems and between subsystems. The results show that the coordination degree within new industrialization system is worst in the recent20years. Between subsystems, agricultural modernization system coordinates worst to other two systems.Based on the above analysis results, this dissertation puts forward strategies to coordinate the development of "three modernizations". It is of great significance for China to transform development pattern from unharmonious way to coordinate "three modernizations" by promoting developments under the bearing capacity of environment, economy and society and focus more on how to promote the development of agricultural modernization.