Research And Design Of Energy Management Information System Based On Multi-layer Hierarchical Prediction Theory And Gray Prediction Theory

Take the computer as the centre of the Iron and Steel Energy Management Information System's(ISEMIS) research to the enterprise energy's assignment, use, the decision analysis and It is the great practical significance to the energy conservation and reducing energy consumption of the iron and steel enterprise.In my article, there are many existence's problems in the ISEMIS such as the managing methods are backwardness, the energy intelligence transmissions are mainly slow, the processing period to be long as well as the intellectualized level of the information system is low in the present stage; In the iron and steel energy consumption prediction problems, such as the prediction is mainly based on forecasts from the Regression Model forecast, Neural Network forecast, Fuzzy forecast and so on, these forecast model's timeliness is bad, the forecast length of stride not to be able to be too long, the forecast precision not higher, and so on. As for the iron and steel enterprise's energy management, how to solve these problems becomes critical. Above this foundation, this article from the production needed with economical practical angle embarking, the independent design to develop based on the multi-layer hierarchical prediction theory and the gray prediction theory steel and iron energy management information system.This article unifies the Iron and steel enterprise energy management the actual demand, take the Yuxi steel and iron subsidiary company of the kunming steel and iron company's energy management as the background, has developed a set by the data management and the data forecast primarily, and based on the multi-layer hierarchical prediction theory and the gray forecast steel and iron energy management information system. This system is mainly take Access 2000 as the backstage database, Visual Basic 6.0 as applies the onstage, the composition visualization is high, the man-machine interaction friendly energy management information system. Through the Yuxi steel energy consumption data's confirmation, this system has the good data management and the high forecast precision.In order to get a better prediction accuracy and the forecast trend, this article applies for the multi-layer hierarchical prediction theory and the gray prediction theory in the steel and iron energy consumption value forecast in the first time. The effect and the trend of the forecast compare other prediction theory to have the big enhancement. Its use of multi-layer hierarchical prediction theory can be divided into time-varying parameter forecasts and time-varying parameter model based on two projections. As a result of tracking time-varying parameters and time-varying parameter estimation, making prediction accuracy and forecasting market trends better effect, while the gray prediction theory mainly for its relatively stable data predicted that its prediction accuracy is better. In this article, the Iron and steel enterprise production process of the most important and the energy consumption occupied the proportion big sintering circuit, the iron-smelting working procedure and the steel-making working procedure energy consumption value has carried on the predictive parsing, has obtained its forecasting result.Finally the use of VB programming language and computing software MATLAB mixed programming technology, VB and MATLAB integrated to form a complete energy management information system. It will supply in the future the energy consumption tendency reliable information for the energy management policy-maker, will achieve the reasonable dispatch energy, to raise the energy use factor, the reduced energy waste request, will realize the industry energy conservation to reduce a row of goal.