System Dynamic Simulation Study On The Coordinated Development Of Economic, Resource And Environment: An Example Of Aiby Lake Valley

Harmonious Development of social economy and ecological environment are the important integrants of the sustainable development theories. The concept of sustainable development has been brought forward since last century; however, it is still popular all around the academic circles. Our country bringing forward China's Agenda makes clear that China is keeping a stiff upper lip when carrying sustainable development into execution. It will have more significance. There has been damaged differently but desert ecological environment has being deteriorated, both of them has restrained the sustainable development of the whole valley. Statistical data shows that the surface area of Aibi lake amounted to about 1200km2 at the end of the 40th of last century. Since the beginning of the 50th of last century, during to the increasing demand of rapidly growing oasis populations, the surface of the lake has become smaller and smaller. At present, only two of the seven rivers are still reaching the shore of the lake. In the past twenty years, strong winds blew away about 4.8 million tons of salty sand from the dried lakebed every year. It is one of the two main headstreams of sandstorms in Xinjiang. So the relationship between social economy and ecological environment became worse and worse and both of them has restrained the sustainable development of the whole valley.This paper applies the method of system dynamics to the research of the coordinated development of Economic-Resource-Environment of Aibi lake valley. It introduces the theory and method of SD and with the aid of the latest version of the software Vensim, it establishes the SD model of Aibi lake valley Economic-Resource-Environment. In establishing that model, in addition to the theory of SD it also uses the other theories such as econometric, sustainable development and resource each other: economic system, resource system and environment system.After simulating the SD model of Aibi lake valley Economic-Resource-Environment, this paper makes suggestions for Aibi lake valley sustainable development.