An Evaluation Model Of The Enterprise Crisis Warning

Crisis early warning is an important research content of the crisis management. The key to an enterprise which timely, accurate predicted the crisis is to establish an effective early-warning indicator system. With a variety of crisis situations which firms may anticipate, the principles of the crisis management and the mode of the crisis early-warning, this paper would like to build an enterprise crisis early-warning evaluation model, by recalled the literature of the enterprise crisis which are the concept, characteristics and classification, etc. From specific technologies and methods, we research and build an enterprise crisis early-warning evaluation model based on the Balanced Scorecard. At present, the theory of the crisis management has tended to improvement. This paper tries to establish more in line with the actual situation of enterprises and more scientific system of the crisis early warning. This paper aims to make more complete theory of the crisis early warning, and hope that the crisis early-warning from the empirical research promote the development of enterprise crisis management and innovation, to enhance the early warning capacity of enterprises and competitiveness.This paper is divided into six parts. The first part introduces the research background, significance and research status. The second part summarized the basis of the crisis early warning, explained the concept and characteristics of the crisis, the content and principles of the crisis management, and last pointed out the meaning and mode of the crisis early warning. The third part is the study sample and data selection methods and proposed the method of constructing the crisis early warning indicator system according to the principles of picking the enterprise crisis early warning indicators. The fourth part is the crisis early warning modeling method. Dimensionless the value of the early warning indicators, AHP to determine the weights of factors, and last established the evaluation model of the enterprise crisis warning based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The fifth part is the test of the corporate distress prediction model, discussed the method for determining the interval on the corporate crisis warning and the management strategies for different intervals. The sixth part is a summary and prospects. It proposed the lack of the research papers and the future research directions.