Distribution Network Investment Effect Evaluation Based On System Dynamics

With the development of national economy, load increase steadily. To meet the development of urban construction and the people’s growing demand for electricity, electricity companies need to invest to expand the distribution network scale and optimize the distribution network structure. Faced with a lot of construction funds, therefore, using scientific methods to evaluate the investment effect of distribution network is important to improve the scientificity of investments and plan distribution network construction reasonable. In this paper, the investment efficiency of the distribution network is the research object, considering distribution network investment is a long-term, rolling dynamic process, and distribution investment construction is systematic, complex and dynamic, so this paper complete the evaluation of the distribution network investment effect by establishing a system dynamics model.First, in the commonly used evaluation methods, indexes are usually independent of each evaluation, and can not reflect the impact between the index and related factors, as well as the index changes over time. Therefore, this paper proposes using system dynamics method to evaluate the effect of distribution network investment. Using system dynamics method to evaluate the effect of distribution network investment can easily reflect the relationship between evaluation indexes and factors in distribution investment construction, and make the evaluation more objective, widely used and more flexible.Second, this paper analyze the effect of distribution network investment, then determine the meaning of the distribution network investment effect, including distribution network technology performance, economic efficiency and social benefits. Using theoretical analysis, frequency statistics and expert consultation to select key index, and establish evaluation index system, and then providing a framework category for subsequent evaluation of system dynamics model.Third, based on distribution network investment effect evaluation index system, this paper analyzes the relationship between the key index and factors affecting distribution network construction. Using Vensim PLE software to establish system dynamics model of distribution network investment effect evaluation, set the boundary conditions of model. Using correlation analysis and regression analysis in SPSS to estimate model parameters. Setting the variables in the model equations.Finally, using system dynamics model to evaluate distribution network investment effect of city A. Finding the problems that may occur under the original investment plan in distribution network construction. Also propose three different investment programs on the basis of original investment program. By comparing key indexes with the original investment program, finding the better program. The results show, this distribution investment effect evaluation based on system dynamics can make for a better distribution network construction macroscopic evaluation and policy certainty. In the meantime, it has some predictive capabilities to help with the construction of a clear direction of the distribution network, as well as to improve the efficiency of the distribution network construction.