Research On Investment Benefit Evaluation And Investment Decision Model Of Distribution Network

In recent years,China's national economy continues to grow steadily,and the whole society has put forward higher requirements on the total amount and quality of power supply.As an important facility for direct transmission of electric energy to users,the investment of distribution network is increasing.However,the difference of regional distribution network development and the imbalance of economic development make it difficult to make investment decisions.Therefore,guided by reasonable and effective investment benefit evaluation system of distribution network,the construction of a systematic and perfect investment decision system of distribution network plays a very important role in improving the accuracy of investment plan of distribution network infrastructure projects and improving the investment benefit level of power network.At first this paper studies the theory of multi-attribute decision making,puts forward improved methods for its application in distribution network,and takes it as the theoretical basis for establishing the investment benefit evaluation system of distribution network.Taking the investment benefit as the core evaluation objective,the influencing factors were excavated by fishbone diagram method,and the three-layer index system was constructed by combining the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method,and set up the index score standard.Secondly,based on the index system,a distribution network investment benefit evaluation system based on triangular fuzzy number dynamic multi-attribute decision making is established.The system introduces time series data,establishes "time series stereo data table" to reflect the dynamic development level of distribution network,the attribute weights are deduced with the method of triangular fuzzy multi-attribute decision making method to reflect the uncertainty of decision information,and the fuzzy decision information integration operator is deduced in order to realize the quantitative comparison of evaluation results.Finally,a three-level investment decision-making system is established.Based on the analysis of distribution network construction status,load growth and operating performance,a distribution network investment scale distribution model is established.Based on the importance of project attribute,the investment direction allocation model is established.Considering the improvement effect and economic benefit of distribution network operation indexes,a project optimization model suitable for each attribute is constructed.Taking the distribution network of a province as an example,the application of investment benefit evaluation and investment decision system of distribution network is illustrated.The result of calculation example shows that the investment benefit evaluation system of distribution network carries out dynamic comprehensive evaluation on the investment benefit of distribution network.The investment decision-making system can not only meet the development needs of regional electricity consumption,operation indexes and economic benefits at the macro level,but also be refined to the optimal combination of specific projects,which is conducive to ensuring the integrity,coordination and network of distribution network investment,so as to achieve accurate investment.