Assessment On The Vulnerability Of Drought In Shaanxi Province

Drought vulnerability is a kind of property which are used to reflect sensitivity to drought of the comprehensive system composed by natural environment, social environment and economic conditions, and the integrated systems are vulnerable to the loss as a result of the lack of drought resistance ability. According to the present condition, through certain methods and means, to judge the drought vulnerability of the region, and ppropose some protective measures, can reduce the damage of drought to the minimum state and might even avoid the drought. Therefore, it is meaningful to study drought vulnerability to the occurrence of drought, the drought risk management, ecosystem and sustainable social and economic.This paper took a district of ten cities in Shaanxi Province as the research area, analysised the regional drought disaster mechanism, established the evaluation index system of drought vulnerability based on statistics for 2013. And calculated the index weights by entropy method, analytic hierarchy process method, variation coefficient method, combined weighting method by entropy and analytic hierarchy process method, combined weighting method by analytic hierarchy process and analytic hierarchy process method. Then screened out the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and general model method based on entropy weight –AHP as the final evaluation results according to the results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and general model. Come to the conclusion as follows:(1)Through the analysisment of the drought disaster mechanism, knowing that precipitation, the total quantity of water resources, surface runoff, annual temperature, river runoff, soil fertility, economic industrial structure, population and education, total grain sown area, regional level of water conservancy, urban and rural residents living standards would have effect on drought vulnerability.(2)The weight of drought vulnerability in ten cities of Shaanxi province was determined by entropy weight method-AHP combination weighting method. The weight of the social factor is almost the same as the natural factor, and that of the economic factor is the least.The order of the weight of each index is: Annual rainfall > School-age children enrollment rate > farmland irrigation rate > Per capita water resources amount > average annual temperature >Farmers per capita income > Population natural growth rate > Per capita GDP> Loan to deposit ratio.(3)The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can reflect the level of drought vulnerability clearly. But with the same level of drought vulnerability among few objects, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can not reflect which one has a higher degree. The results of drought vulnerability degree evaluated by general model can show clearly that the sort of drought vulnerable degree in different cities. Thus it can not a reflect that the specific drought vulnerability degree. Therefore, it is more scientific and reliable to combine fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with general mode method to evaluate the drought vulnerability of Shaanxi Province.(4)Through the analysis of drought vulnerability in Shaanxi Province, the main features of drought vulnerability in Shaanxi province were that the obvious regional distribution difference and the significant temporal and spatial distribution difference of rainfall. The high value area of drought vulnerability degree in Shanxi Province was located in most parts of northern shaanxi area, the Guanzhong northern and Shangluo area of southern shaanxi. The drought vulnerability degree in Shaanxi Province ascending order: Hanzhong City < Xi’an City < Ankang City < Baoji City < Xianyang City < Yulin City < Tongchuan City < Shangluo City < Weinan City < Yangling District < Yan’an City.