Study Of Drought Disaster Vulnerability Based On Statistical Model

China’s meteorological disasters occur frequently, especially the impact of drought disaster is enormous. With the development of social economy, increasing water demand, drought disaster prevention become especially urgent. Studying on drought disaster vulnerability can provide theoretical and technical basis for the drought. Studying on drought disaster needs support of the theory, technology and methods of multidisciplinary. Since this research is designed into several areas.Yiwu city is located in the central area of Zhejiang province, it is one of the most developed areas in China. Affected by the monsoon and the natural geographical conditions of Yiwu City, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is uneven, and the inter annual variation is large, so there is a great impact on the local economic and social development due to the drought disaster. Therefore, the research on Yiwu drought vulnerability can not only provide a theoretical basis for the research of drought disaster risk, but also offer a guidance for the government to improve drought ability of integrated disaster mitigation and response to drought disasterThis paper takes Yiwu city as the research area, establishes the evaluation pay attention to these three factors that natural factors, social factors, economic factors. The paper determines the weight of each index by Analytic Hierarchy Process, evaluates the vulnerability of drought disaster of Yiwu synthetically using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The drought vulnerability of Yiwu during 2003 to 2014 were conducted from time lapse’s angle in the paper. Taking the drought of 2013 as a case, the spatial difference of drought vulnerability in Yiwu city was evaluated comprehensively.The main conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:(1) The drought disasters of Yiwu city has the characteristics of high frequency, wide affected area and loss etc.. With the growth of economy and population of Yiwu City, the demand of water resources has increased, so the task of drought prevention and control is particularly urgent.(2) According to Yiwu drought disaster data, we sort out and analyze a conclusion:the reason of drought disaster in Yiwu city is forced by the natural factors and social economic factors, and it is relevant to topography, geomorphology, atmospheric conditions, underlying surface and human activities.(3) By hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of Yiwu’s drought vulnerability comprehensive evaluation, it draws the conclusion that: from the point of view of time, during 2003 to 2014, the drought vulnerability level of Yiwu city overall presented a downward trend. From space level, Yiwu city within the domain of drought vulnerability exists larger differences. Among the 13 evaluation units,3 belongs to low vulnerability areas,2 belongs to the relatively low vulnerable areas, and there are 3 moderately vulnerable areas,3 high vulnerability areas,2 highly vulnerable areas. According to the actual situation of the 13 evaluation units, the evaluation results are basically in accordance with the actual situation.