Study And Design Of Monitoring Early Warning And Assessment System On Main Meteorological Disaster In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

In this paper, we selected the main meteorological disaster——ice run of Yellow River anddrought——which have big influence on local economy development according to the weathercharacteristics in Inner Mongolia autonomous region to research and design the monitoring early warning and assessment system. Firstly, by the analysis of the characteristics of ice run and unique climatic specialty in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River, we pointed out the causes of ice run disaster and established the model of freezing date, breakup the ice date, flowing the ice date, the mid-range forecast and short-rang early warning. On this foundation, the real-time dynamic monitoring and early warning system of ice run has been practiced by using GIS excellent function on space analysis and operation. Secondly, considering the characteristics of drought and regulations of dry damage, the indexes of drought early warning and dry damage assessment were defined in accordance with climatic characteristics in Inner Mongolia region. By comparison analysis of the real-time drought conditions and historical ones, the rank criteria of those indexes were obtained. Therefore we can classify the drought type according to early warning data. Finally, we set up inquiry and real-time monitoring early warning assessment system of droughts in Inner Mongolia region according to the weather forecast. In the actual application, according to weather forecast of meteorological observer each day, we can real-time assess the scope, intensity and time periods of dry damage, monitor generation and evolution of drought conditions, as well as provide reliable data source for drought-resistant decision analysis to correlation departments.Based on the large quantity data about meteorological observation, hydrologic record, agriculture and animal statistics, meteorological disaster and geographical information been collected, we used the mathematical statistics forecast methods, BAYES classification discriminate analysis means, visual programming technology and geographical information techniques to design the monitoring early warning and assessment system. After nearly three years' actual application, we further perfected the construction of the system and index sign, made the result of the system is basic fit for actual condition.In a word, with the constant development in the visual programming technology and geographical information techniques, they will have widespread application and potential effectiveness in meteorological field, especially in monitoring early warning and assessment in meteorological disaster. By all means it will bring obvious benefit to promote meteorological project and make the weather business to expand towards the depth and the width, as well as to improve the disaster control and reduce disaster in Inner Mongolia autonomous region.