Information Monitoring And Analysis Of Emergency Early Warning

Emergencies occur frequently in recent years and cause a lot of serious damages to social stability and security, which has drawn the attention of the whole country. The existing researches focus on emergency management after its happening, and there are some researches on emergency early warning discussing the mechanism, model and information system of early warning. In this thesis, early warning of emergency is researched from the view of information science. Early warning analysis and signal analysis are applied in this research borrowing the theory of disaster chain and early warning mechanism of emergency. Indicators, information source, signal scanning and analysis of emergency are discussed in the order of information work flow using literature research and case study.Firstly, contingency and necessity together with predictability and unpredictable is discussed based on crisis early warning theory as well as the law of mutual change of quality and quantity. Behind the contingency of emergency, there's still some necessity, which makes emergency early warning possible. Emergency early warning is connected with information in its development process and disaster chain theory and early warning mechanism. Risk events are thought to be the signal of emergency, and also to be the object of information monitoring. Early warning of secondary events and concomitant events has to be included in the scope of monitoring.Secondly, both indicators in early warning and in information collection are thought to be the filter of information. There are four types of method constructing the system of early warning indicators, and constructing indicator system for specific problems can be used in emergency early warning indicators. The dimensions of indicators are concluded based on the causation of emergency, and the method of constructing indicator system for specific problems is introduced using two cases.Thirdly, with the guidance of all-source intelligence, which requires both the source and the type of information, should have different forms. So human source, non-public and public source of information is discussed respectively. The subject of information monitoring is specified in the model of "professional monitoring+social monitoring". Both direct and indirect scanning should be the method of monitoring, and three notes are listed to make sure the monitoring work effectively and efficiently. Fourthly, the faintness of signal and barriers in cognitive psychology of analyzer are two difficulties in early warning signal analysis of emergency. The key to solve these problems is to keep an open mind. The method of Delphi can provide multiple perspectives. Analysis of Competitive Hypothesis (ACH) can develop more than one hypothesis. Fragmental Intelligence Analytical Method can connect the information dots and reveal the true message behind information. Scenario analysis can magnify weak signals.Innovations of this research can be expressed as follows:Early warning of emergency is researched from the view of information science and a model of this is proposed. In existing researches, there aren't many discussions on monitoring and analysis of early warning signals of emergency, and this thesis tries to fill this blanket. The whole body of this research is organized in the order of information work flow, and reverse thinking is applied by analyzing cases that failed in early warning. This research emphasizes information's role of being "eyes and ears, vanguard and staff", and shows information science's important meaning in strategy management of our country. And this research also has shortcomings, for the conclusions are more likely to be theoretical and there are relatively less discussions on things guiding the practice. Improvement can be made through researching a specific area or case of emergency and studying the theories and methods in early warning of conventional emergency which can be used in that of unconventional emergency.