The Research On The Risk Management In The Period Of Decision-making Of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project

As a new mode of development and exploitation of navigation of freshwater in our nation, Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project requires a further research in the practice, also is urgently for researchers to develop relevant work in the every way in theory. Searching from the existing information, the systematic research on this problem is still little, especially in the aspect of risk management in the period of decision-making, so that there is a lack of theory which is fit to the characteristics of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project to support when we carry on the work about the risk management in the period of decision-making. Therefore, it has important meaning to discuss an effective mode of risk management in the period of decision-making. Firstly, on the base of the analysis of the characteristics of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project, the meaning of risk management in the period of decision-making is discussed, and the rational division mode in the period of decision-making is also presented to the characteristics of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project in the thesis. Secondly, the model of risk management in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project is established, including four parts which are risk identification, risk evaluation, risk disposal and risk monitor and control, of which the total risk evaluation and the compositor of risk factors are included in risk evaluation. By the total risk evaluation in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project, a clear understanding to the overall risk of the project can be gained and the degree of damage to which risk cause may be mastered macroscopically. By composing the discriminating risk factors, the primary factors of risk in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project are made clear so that the tactics of risk disposal can be pertinently instituted. Thirdly, in terms of the model of risk management established, the means of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk disposal and risk monitor and control are discussed which are fit to the characteristics of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project. The conclusions are: the method of decompounding risk factors combining with the one of experts inquiry may identify effectively the risk in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project; The blending model, which combines the fussy synthetic assessment with the model of AHP, can effectively value the total risk in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project and compose the discriminating risk factors, accordingly realizing the measurable and pertinent control to risk. Lastly, by demonstration and analysis of the project of Zhuzhou Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project, the theory established in the thesis about risk management in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project is proved to be feasible. By researching for this task, a kind of method and thought is provided for risk management in the period of decision-making of Waterway Navigation & Hydropower Junction Project.