| The carrying capacity of land resources is the scientific foundation and important constraint condition for current land spatial management and planning.As a populous country,China’s land resources are facing a severe situation of resource shortage,imbalanced allocation,and tightening constraints.Conducting research on the carrying capacity of land resources,clarifying the support level of current land resources for the population growth and economic construction,and understanding the carrying status and changing patterns of land resource carrying capacity are necessary ways to achieve sustainable utilization of land resources and sustainable development of the economy and society.The current research on land resource carrying capacity has achieved a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of carrying capacity,but the impact of changes in natural resources and human socio-economic development on land resource carrying capacity is still unclear.There is a lack of large-scale analysis and research on long-term dynamic changes in carrying capacity,and research on spatial functional zoning based on carrying capacity is also relatively rare.Therefore,in view of the shortcomings in the current research on land resource carrying capacity evaluation,this paper proposes a complete set of methods for land resource carrying capacity evaluation,carrying capacity change analysis and carrying function zoning based on the natural social perspective,and attempts to analyze the impact of population and socio-economic development on land resource carrying capacity in Chinese Mainland from the perspective of natural resource endowment and socio-economic development.The main research content and achievements of this article are as follows:(1)A cross comprehensive evaluation model for land resource carrying capacity based on a natural social perspective has been proposed.This model divides the land resource carrying capacity into four parts: natural supply subsystem,social supply subsystem,natural demand subsystem,and social demand subsystem,and analyzes the impact of natural and social factors on the carrying capacity using the cross comprehensive relationship between the four subsystems.The evaluation results indicate that relying solely on natural endowments,most provinces in China are unable to support the current population,but the socio-economic development has significantly improved the comprehensive carrying capacity of most regions.The insufficient supply of natural resources is a weak link in the land resource carrying capacity system of most provinces in China,and it is also a major factor limiting regional development.However,the development of social economy has significantly improved the comprehensive carrying capacity of most provinces.(2)The background value of land resource carrying capacity was proposed,defined as the maximum carrying capacity of natural resources without being affected by human socioeconomic and technological factors.Meanwhile,based on the background value of land resource carrying capacity,a bearing capacity change index(LCDI)was proposed to characterize the changes in land resource carrying capacity.The calculation results of the change index of land resources carrying capacity show that the natural carrying capacity of land resources in Chinese Mainland’s provinces from 1990 to 2020 has continued to decline,but with the support of social carrying capacity,the carrying capacity of land resources is in an overall growth trend.On the one hand,human socio-economic activities have caused the decline of land resources carrying capacity when consuming resources and destroying the environment,On the other hand,due to the utilization and transformation of resources and environment by human activities,the carrying capacity of land resources has overall improved.At the same time,the analysis results of the obstacle model indicate that grain production capacity,ecosystem carbon sequestration,construction land area,and water resources are the shortcomings of China’s land carrying capacity development.(3)Analyzed the applicability of several common spatial zoning methods in carrying capacity functional zoning,and proposed a K-means NRCA zoning method based on the existing problems.The accuracy of several zoning methods was verified using land use and cover data and DBI index.Research has shown that in the study of load-bearing capacity functional zoning,the K-means NRCA method has the highest zoning accuracy.Then,the Kmeans NRCA zoning method is adopted,and the carrying function zoning is carried out according to the bearing capacity evaluation results of provinces in Chinese Mainland. |
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