| Since the reform and opening up,China has made full use of the comparative advantage of cheap labor to undertake a large number of labor-intensive production links transferred from developed countries,and embedded the low-end into the Global Value Chain(GVC)division of labor system led by developed countries,rapidly becoming the "world factory",effectively releasing its economic potential.It has made remarkable economic achievements.Especially after China joined the WTO in 2001,the scale of China’s foreign trade expanded rapidly,which promoted the rapid growth of GDP.In recent years,the international and domestic environments have undergone profound changes,and China’s participation in GVCS faces certain risks and challenges.On the one hand,with the gradual disappearance of China’s demographic dividend,labor costs are rising,which means that the profitability of participating in the global value chain division relying on the advantage of cheap labor costs is weakened.On the other hand,after the financial crisis,the return of high-end manufacturing in developed countries and the diversion of more and more labor-intensive industries to emerging economies have formed a double squeeze on China’s participation in the global value chain.In addition,the rise of trade protectionism has caused certain obstacles and risks to China’s participation in the global value chain.At the same time,China’s employment market has also undergone some significant changes,labor supply remains high,employment pressure is not reduced,employment structure contradiction still exists.In 2020,the sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus caused a huge negative impact on global trade and industrial chain,and China’s job market faced a severe test.Since 2019 the Chinese government work report clearly put forward "stable employment,stable steady finance,foreign trade,foreign investment,investment,stabilizing expectations",after six stabilization measures,made in 2020,the Chinese government work report first steady employment development goal of ensuring people’s well-being,and demanded that the overall employment preferential policy,fiscal,monetary and investment policy to support steady employment.To some extent,"stable foreign trade" is "stable employment" specific measures.Under the situation of severe employment situation in China,we should give full play to the positive role of China’s participation in global value chain in creating employment,which can effectively relieve the domestic employment pressure.Therefore,how to accurately consider the employment effect of China’s participation in global value chain has become the key to "stable employment".In view of this,based on a comprehensive analysis of the typical facts of China’s participation in GVCS,this paper comprehensively evaluates the employment effect of China’s participation in GVCS from three different research perspectives: economic depth,differences of export destination countries and height of position.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:First,in terms of typical facts,GVC indicators are constructed based on the production decomposition model of Wang et al.(2017a)and the GVC location index of Wang et al.(2017b).Based on the world input-output data provided by WIOD from 2000 to 2014,the typical facts of China’s participation in GVCS are analyzed from three aspects: degree of participation in GVCS,trade links and division of labor status.The findings are as follows :(1)from 2000 to 2011,China was deeply integrated into the global value chain,while the position of the global value chain was constantly moving downstream;From 2012 to 2014,China’s forward and backward GVC participation continued to decline.Under the guidance of a series of trade policies,the accelerated integration of high-tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services improved the technological content of export products and promoted China’s position in the global value chain from downstream to mid-downstream.(2)During 2000-2014,both the destination countries of China’s domestic VALUE-ADDED exports and the source countries of foreign value-added imports changed from developed economies to developing economies.In 2014,the bilateral production cooperation between China and most EU member states was mainly in the form of complex GVC.(3)China’s international competitiveness is mainly reflected in the manufacturing industry,among which the international competitiveness of low-technology manufacturing industry has been weakening,but its international competitiveness advantage still exists.The international competitiveness of high-tech manufacturing industry is increasing,but there is a certain gap with developed countries.The international competitiveness of service industry is very weak,among which,the international competitiveness of knowledge-intensive service industry has been enhanced,but the pattern of "comparative disadvantage" remains unchanged.Secondly,from the perspective of economic depth,based on the production decomposition framework of Wang et al.(2017a),a GVC employment effect model is established.Using the world input-output table from 1995 to 2009 provided by WIOD and employment data provided by social and economic accounts,a quantitative analysis is made on the employment quantity and employment structure effect of China’s participation in GVC.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the empirical test of the impact of GVC participation on employment shows that :(1)after China’s accession to the WTO in 2001,the driving effect of China’s participation in GVC on employment has become increasingly stronger,and the proportion of China’s participation in GVC to the total employment increased from 7.77% in 2001 to 11.49% in 2007.Among them,the driving effect of GVC participation of manufacturing industry on employment is increasing,while the driving effect of GVC participation of service industry on employment is weakening.Heterogeneity analysis shows that simple GVC is the main driving force for domestic employment in China.China mainly promotes domestic employment through division of labor with developed economies.The GVC division of labor between China and EU drives the largest amount of domestic employment,followed by North America and east Asia.(2)From the perspective of the employment of skilled labor force,China’s participation in GVC has the strongest driving effect on the employment of low-skilled labor force,followed by medium-skilled labor force,and the least skilled labor force.Although the driving effect of China’s participation in GVC on the skilled labor force is weak,it keeps rising steadily,mainly reflected in the increasing driving effect of service industry participation in GVC on the skilled labor force.In addition,China’s accession to wto reversed the previous process of optimizing the employment skill structure caused by China’s participation in GVC,and the driving effect on the employment of middle-skilled labor force was weakened,while the driving effect on the employment of low-skilled labor force was enhanced.(3)There is obvious heterogeneity in the impact of manufacturing and service participation on employment.The increase of forward GVC participation in manufacturing and backward GVC participation in manufacturing will expand employment scale.The increase of the former will increase the relative demand for high-skilled labor force,while the increase of the latter will increase the relative demand for middle-skilled labor force.The improvement of forward GVC participation in service industry will promote employment and increase the relative demand for high-tech and medium-skilled labor force,while the improvement of backward GVC participation in service industry will reduce employment and increase the relative demand for high-tech labor force.Thirdly,from the perspective of differences of export destination countries,the hypothesis extraction method and structural decomposition method are adopted to quantitatively analyze the employment effect of China’s export under the embedment of Global value chain by using the 2000-2014 world input-output data provided by WIOD.The findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2014,China’s employment was mainly driven by domestic demand,and the driving effect of external demand on China’s employment was easily affected by international economic fluctuations.China’s final export-driven employment continued to increase,but the unit’s final export-driven employment continued to decline.(2)From the bilateral perspective,the final export-driven employment of Chinese units varies with the destination countries.The empirical analysis shows that the rate of export domestic value-added is the key factor to determine the amount of final export-driven employment.Industries with higher share of export domestic value-added,such as natural resources industry,low-technology manufacturing and service industry,have more final export-driven employment.Therefore,the different industry composition of China’s export to destination countries is the main reason for the significant difference in the final export-driven employment of Chinese units with different export destination countries.(3)using structural decomposition method to investigate 2000-2014,the influence factors of effect on employment unit of China exports eventually change,labor input and output coefficient change is causing the unit found eventually export-led decisive factor to the decline in employment,in the export sector of change is resulting in a decline in the employment of the final export-led China unit,the important factors The change of input-output link promotes the increase of Chinese unit’s final export-driven employment.Fourthly,from the perspective of location height,this paper measures the embedding position of GVC by the upstream degree of the industry.Based on theoretical analysis and relevant data provided by the World input-output table and socio-economic accounts from WIOD2000 to 2014,this paper empirically tests the impact of the embedding position of GVC on The employment of China’s manufacturing industry,and finds that:(1)The upstream degree of industry has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the employment of China’s manufacturing industry.The higher the upstream degree of the industry is,the lower the embedding position of global value chain is,and the more it can promote manufacturing employment,but there will be inflection point when it exceeds a certain degree.The reason lies in that the higher the industry upstream,the greater the technology premium,and the technology premium will significantly reduce the employment in the technology industry.When the industrial upstream degree is higher and the technology premium is higher,the combined force of the industrial upstream degree and the technology premium will significantly reduce the employment in the technology industry,and the employment expansion effect will decrease,or even appear an inflection point.(2)The greater the difference in upstream degree between China and the US,the greater the employment promotion effect on China.However,the greater the synergy between the upstream difference and the technology premium between China and the US,the less employment is absorbed by China,especially in low-technology industries. |
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