| The 19 th National Congress report pointed out that employment is the greatest livelihood and we need to achieve higher quality and fuller employment.As a "new engine" for promoting global economic growth,improving the competitiveness of various countries,and creating employment,global value chains provide an important and new perspective for us to understand "trade and employment." On the one hand,with the deepening of the specialization in the global value chain,the movement of intermediate products across multiple countries will make a country "statistical illusion".Therefore,globalized production requires new trade statistics methods to measure the real trade and employment gains.On the other hand,as China increasingly becomes the "hub" of global production,China has evolved its unique model in participating in the globalized production network.In-depth study of this model has important significance for improving the quality of domestic employment in the future.This paper differs from the existing studies on the employment effects of foreign trade.First of all,we have revealed the degree of participation of China's manufacturing industry in the global value chain through relevant indicators.At the same time,we have portrayed the performance and characteristics of China's participation in the global division of production model.Secondly,we constructed the employment effect index of unit increase in value,and conducted a departmental decomposition and cross-country comparative analysis.Finally,this paper deeply analyzes the impact of the international specialization mode on the domestic employment structure.Through theoretical and empirical research,we have reached the following conclusions: First,the participation in global value chain and the specialization mode are: The participation of China's manufacturing industries in the global value chain showed an upward trend before the financial crisis in 2008,but it showed a declining trend after the financial crisis.North America is the largest forward-to-work division economic entity,while Japan and South Korea are our country's first backward vertical specialization economies;The forward and backward associations between China and the BRICS countries are constantly increasing.Second,in terms of the value-added employment effect: Traditional output-based employment estimation underestimates the effect of real marginal output on employment;The ability of value-added and employment-creating effects of the low-tech manufacturing industry are the strongest in the integration into the global value chain,but the employment creation effect is more sensitive to external shocks;The low manufacturing industry's value-added growth and employment growth show a "shift" relationship in the short term when it rise to the global value chain;we found that the coupling development of high manufacturing industry and service industry was an important source of employment growth in the future.Finally,participation in the global value chains has a positive effect on the domestic employment structure as a whole.In the direction of imports,the vertical specialization with Japan,South Korea,and the European Union can significantly increase the employment structure in our country;In the export direction,the vertical specialization with three major economies of North America,Japan,South Korea,and BRICS can significantly improve the domestic employment structure.The "East Asia-China-North America" triangle division mode can significantly optimize the domestic employment structure;The "pure processing model" with U.S.has no obvious effect on the improvement of domestic employment structure. |
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