| The Hu Line is the boundary of China’s population spatial distribution and comprehensive national conditions,which directly shows the situation of "more in the East and less in the west" : 36% of the area in the east bears 94% of the total population,and 64% of the area bears only 6% of the total population.In recent decades,China’s population flow has become increasingly frequent,but the Hu Line has always been stable,resulting in the continuous expansion of the economic development gap between the East and the West.With Premier Li Keqiang’s three questions of "should it be broken? Can it be broken? How to break?" raised around the Hu Line in 2013,the social and academic circles paid more attention to and began to explore the road of "rational layout of population,towns and industries to achieve a higher level of urbanization and modernization in the central and western regions" on the basis of not violating the objective law of the Hu Line.The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative(the Belt and Road,B&R)put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping in 2013 became the key to changing the horizontal pattern of population and regional development on both sides of the Hu Line.Internationally,B&R shoulders the important mission of participating in global economic governance,promoting the establishment of a new international economic order and building a "destiny community".By 2019,the Chinese government has signed 195 intergovernmental cooperation agreements with 136 countries and 30 international organizations,extending from Asia and Europe to Africa,Latin America,the South Pacific,Western Europe and other relevant countries,forming a win-win situation for many countries.For China,B&R construction will solve the domestic development dilemma.On the one hand,B&R has created a wider platform for China’s industry,capital and technology.On the other hand,the western of China will be the new window to the whole world and prosperous,helping the balance of population and regional development.However,the relation of B&R construction and population flows stays at the theoretical assumptions.The current literature lacks a deep explanation of the relationship between B&R construction and the domestic population mobility.There are still two problems to be solved: population mobility is a barometer of economic development,under the migration pattern of China with high mobility of population,how B&R construction can affect the population flow on both sides of the Hu Line?Has this effect been seen in the current stage,making the population and the region more balanced? The above problems are one of the most important one for us to build one belt,one road to the population,and to change the flow of population and the balanced development of population.This dissertation attempts to build the analytical framework of B&R construction and migration,and focuses on B&R construction affects the flow,citizenization,mobility and the population distribution in China.This is significant for us grasping the new changes in population distribution and mobility,and achieving balanced population and regional development.The dissertation is about theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between B&R construction and population mobility.The first part analyze the evolution of regional policy since the founding of China.The framework of "regional policy,regional development and population mobility" gets set up.The most important theoretical proposition we put foreword is that B&R construction can enhance international regional cooperation,coordinate the domestic regional development,so as to guide the reasonable westward flow of population and promote the balanced development of population and region.Based on the proposition,we further put forward three hypotheses: 1a is B&R construction will guide the population rationally flow to the west of the Hu Line.1b is B&R construction will help improve the citizenization willingness of the internal migration to the western regions.2 is B&R construction is conducive to the balanced distribution of population.Secondly,we treat B&R construction as the main research object,based on the Hu Line,use the panel’s regression and DID model make detailed demonstration of the core propositions from three aspects,namely,the flow direction,citizenization,and the distribution of the working population.Finally,the empirical results verify the proposed theoretical assumptions and put forward targeted policy suggestions.This dissertation consists of four parts:The first part is the first to second chapters,which is the theoretical basis of the full text.Chapter one sorting the related research of population distribution and the factors affecting labor migration,and so on,provide a theoretical basis for the study of the influence of B&R construction on the population distribution and population mobility in China.The second chapter reviews the relevant theories of population mobility and regional economics,constructs the analytical framework of regional policy and population mobility,and puts forward the core proposition.The second part is the third chapter,which focuses on describing and analyzing the current situation and characteristics of China’s internal migration.We describe the personal characteristics of internal migration in detail,then comparatively analyze before and after B&R construction of changes of internal migration.The third part is the fourth to sixth chapters.It is an empirical analysis.Using the Collection of Data Migration Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey from 2012 to2017(CMDS),fourth and five chapters demonstrate the research hypotheses in detail from the flow direction and citizenization.The fourth chapter takes whether the migrant population flows to the west of the Hu Line as the dependent variable,and study the influence of B&R construction on the choice of migrant population.Extend analysis and Internal mechanism of demographic dimension is also verified.The research object of the fifth chapter is the residence intention of migrant population to the west of the Hu Lline.The main study is to clear the relation between the B&R construction and citizenization willingness.The heterogeneity of the Hu Line influence is further clarified.In the sixth chapter,for empirical analysis,the city panel data from 2010 to 2018 are used to study the relationship between B&R construction and the working population.The working population concentration index is calculated.We focus on study B&R construction’s influence on the work population size and density.The fourth part is the seventh chapter,which focuses on the main research findings of this dissertation,puts forward corresponding policy suggestions based on the conclusions,and finally points out the shortcomings and future research direction.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,this dissertation basically verifies the establishment of the core proposition,and draws the following main conclusions:First,B&R construction has a significant impact on the flow of migrants Since2015,which will have a significant positive impact on the westward flow of migrant population and increase the probability of 0.8%.Moreover,B&R construction will increase the probability of westward migration through the mechanism of industrial upgrading effect,employment optimization effect and family development effect.The probability is small but it is that B&R can indeed bring about a trend of population flowing to the west of the Hu Line,which will be transformed into a fundamental change in China’s population pattern with the continuous B&R construction.B&R construction has a significant effect on the registered residence in the east of the Hu Line,and increased its probability of 0.9% to the West.B&R construction has a positive effect on the migration in every educational level.The three groups divided by junior middle school and below,high school/technical secondary school and college have increased 1.31%,1.01% and 0.07% respectively to the west of the Hu Line.It also can increase the proportion of the floating population of the primary industry and the second industry to the west,with the added value of8.11% and 0.7% respectively.B&R construction can significantly increase the probability of migrant population crossing the Hu Line(0.7%),enhance the mobility of migrant population and achieve further migration.On the microscopic level,one can benefit from B&R construction and move free.Macroscopically,with the increase of the mobility of migrant population,the population will no longer be limited to the flow only in any side of the Hu Lline,but multi-directional and long-distance migration,which can break the stability of the Hu Line.The trend of migrant population flow to the west of the Hu Line has begun to reveal,and regional development needs population support.Therefore,a reasonable westward migration is beneficial to the economic construction of the west cities and plays a positive role in the balanced development of population and region in the long run.Second,B&R construction can raise the citizenization willingness of the migrant population to the west of the Hu Line,at least 14.1% increase probability,so that the migrant population will settle permanently in the west of the Hu line.The migrant population willing to stay for a long time in the west of the Hu Line has the characteristics of higher education and employment status dominated by employers or self-employed workers.B&R runs through the East and West,bringing talent and resources into operation.Therefore,the western region will retain more high-level talents and the foreign trade industry will develop rapidly.Third,the impact of B&R construction on population distribution has not yet appeared.At the macro urban level,the distribution of the working population in China is relatively uneven.B&R construction did not cause fundamental changes in the distribution of the working population and minor students in the short term,and the working population would naturally gather in the eastern region.The innovation of this dissertation lies in:First,this dissertation provides a new research perspective for breaking through the Hu Line and changing spatial pattern of population in China.There are two ideas on the Hu Line.One is the determinism of natural environment.The natural conditions in the southeast of the Hu Line are superior,and the geographical situation in the northwest of the line is complex and the ecological environment is relatively bad.The resulting pattern of more population in the East and less population in the West is highly stable and difficult to break through.The second is social and economic determinism.The regional historical conditions and differences in economic development have led to the phenomenon of "Peacock Flying Southeast",and the problem-solving idea of breaking through the Hu Line has not been found.Compared with previous views,this dissertation finds B&R construction is the important opportunity to promote inflow of population to the West and break the Hu Line.This proposition is confirmed by theoretical analysis and empirical research.In addition,B&R construction,which has a relatively small impact on population mobility,has been well supplemented in this field.Second,in terms of research methods,this dissertation constructed repeated cross-sectional data of CMDS,overcoming the limitation of microscopic section data,using DID and PSM-DID methods to prove the causal relationship between the B&R construction and migration of the Hu Line.In the time dimension,the proposed time of B&R is September 2013.Theoretically,the effect of policy implementation will lag behind the start time of policy.This paper takes panel regression in 2014 and 2015 as time node.In the spatial dimension,B&R is not a regional policy,the changes brought about will affect the whole country and even the whole Asia Europe continent.But in the early stage of B&R construction,there are eighteen provinces and autonomous regions with key delineation.These areas are the typical areas of B&R construction.So we could treat eighteen provinces and cities along the route as treated group.The inflow to the B&R area,the assignment is 1.the other is assigned to 0.the net effect of B&R can be more accurately measured by the combination of time and space.Third,from the perspective of influence mechanism,based on the influence factors of B&R construction on regional economic and social development,the dissertation summarizes the three ways of B&R construction,which are the effects of industrial upgrading,employment optimization and family development.Using the two-step regression method,we takes the industrial type,vocational education matching degree and family migration of the working floating population referring to industrial upgrading,employment optimization and family development,finally finding B&R can enhance the industrial structure upgrading in the western region,improve the quality of employment for the inflow population,optimize the institutional environment and cultural environment of family development,and further enhance the attraction of the west side of the Hu Line.This is not the case in previous research institutes. |
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