Research On The Structural Evolution And Mechanism Of Population Migration Among Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

The "Belt and Road" is the abbreviation of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road".Since ancient times,the "Belt and Road" has been a channel for trade,military,cultural and personnel exchanges.However,the research on the "Belt and Road"at present are mainly focusing on geopolitics,infrastructure construction,foreign investment,resource cooperation,economic and trade,and so on,which lacking analysis of the migration along the route.Besides that^in the existing study of the population migration along the "Belt and Road”,most of them are based on the historical migration and the flow in the sub-areas along the route,lacking a holistic perspective;or focus on a specific ethnic group,lacking a geography perspective.However,with the acceleration of the world integration process and the proposal of multiple cross-regional coordinated development strategies,cross-regional research from a holistic perspective plays an important role in integrating multi-regional resources and achieving common development.Moreover,people analyze migration from a geographical perspective can discover its_spatial distribution pattern,divide the evolution stage of population migration,and further analyze its mechanism of action by combining social and economic factors,thus enriching the research content of population migration.Therefore,this paper uses social network theory,combined with spatial interaction model,analysing the structural characteristics of migration along the "Belt and Road" from the perspective of the overall structural evolution of migration network and the differentiation of local mechanisms,and exploring its evolution process and mechanism.The integration and differentiation of the migration network within the scope of the study has certain significance for predicting the future integration tendency.This paper selects the three periods from 1960 to 1970,1980 to 1990 and 2000 to 2010,and uses spatial visualization methods such as chord diagram and ArcGIS to reflecting the migration of the 10-year period along the 1960 region and the status evolution in the world migration network.Besides that,this paper uses the relevant indicators of social network theory for analysing the dominant migration channel and the dominant migration country along the migration network,and discovering the polarization characteristics of the migration linkage and the evolution process of the sub-group structure characteristics.Moreover,this paper selects data for the period of 2010-2015 to examine the changes in migration along the route after the "One Belt,One Road" initiative,in order to find out whether the migration along the route shows an increase and integration trend.Finally,from the three perspectives of "differentiation","accessibility" and "competitiveness",the main influencing factors system of migration network along the route is constructed,for revealing the organization and mechanism of the migration network within each subgroup from 2000?2010 and 2010?2015.The results of the study show that the migration along the route is large and has a high international statues,it has always been an active region of the world's migration.After the"Belt and Road" initiative was put forward,the proportion of migration along the route has risen sharply in the world's total migration which set off a new wave of ties between the regions along the route.The net immigration and the net emigration of the country are spatially staggered,and the migration is regionally.The spatial distance,geopolitics,and regional culture are restrictive to the cross-regional population migration.There is a significant difference in the size of migration between countries along the route.The migration linkages between most countries are small and low-level,and high-level population migration has a high spatial agglomeration,mainly between Russia and Eastern Europe-Central Asian countries,and South Asia-Middle East countries.The migration relationship between Russia and Eastern European Central Asian countries is characterized by a Russian-centered axis-spoke structure,but the intensity of the connection is significantly weakened.The migration between South Asia-West Asia and between them is east-west channel-like,and the channel The structure is gradually extended and bifurcated.The migration network along the route experienced a process of "first secret and then sparse".Before the 21st century,migration activities along the route gathered in a few high-level countries,and their dominance in the network gradually increased.After the 21st century,migration activities tend to decentralized,the dominance of high-degree countries declines,and the overall efficiency of the network increases.The migration network along the route has formed a relatively stable and loose "core-half-edge-edge"structure.Most of the countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are core countries.The core advantages of the former Soviet Union countries are also obvious.The marginal countries are mainly in Africa and West Asia.The migration network along the route can be divided into four subgroups in four time periods:the Middle East subgroup,the South Asia-Southeast Asia subgroup,the former Soviet subgroup,and the former Yugoslav subgroup.The Middle East subgroup and the South Asian-Southeast Asian subgroup have experienced a process of "separation-integration",and the included countries have changed greatly.The former Soviet subgroup and the countries of the former Yugoslavia are more stable.Comparing the four subgroups,we can find that although the four subgroups in each period are still dominated by intra-subgroup migration and less external migration,the openness of the two subgroups in Europe is significantly higher than that of the two subgroups in Asia.The Asian subgroup has a relatively fixed high-intensity migration channel,and the connections among members within the sub-group are also closer.On the whole,the differentiation of the two major migration systems in Europe and Asia still exists,and the migration network along the line is still dominated by intra-regional migration.On this basis,the index system of influencing factors along the migration network is further constructed from the three aspects of "differentiation","accessibility" and"competitiveness",and using the space interaction model to analyze the mechanism of the migration network of each subgroup in the 21st century,for investigating the leading influencing factors of migration network of each subgroup.Through analysing,it can be seen that after the 21st century,Europe and Asia have certain similarities in the mechanism of migration.That is,the traditional influences on migration,the total population of source and sink,and the economic development of source and sink have little effect on the migration network along the route.Factors such as the degree of governance,the level of human development,the similarity of culture and politics,and the degree of interrelationship have a strong influence on the migration network along the route.This phenomenon is more obvious in the period from 2010 to 2015.It can be found that China's current position in the migration network along the route is not high.With the implementation and promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative,the scale of "going out" of Chinese labor workers and high-tech talents will further increase,and China' s participation in the population migration network along the line will also increase.In addition,exchanges and cooperation between China and countries along the route will be further deepened,which promoting the common development of countries along the route.