Research On China’s Agricultural Trade Embodied Carbon And Its Coping Strategies

In recent years,as the highlighted issue of climate change and the increasing number of global trade,international scholars have a strong interest in embodied carbon problems in international trade.They based on the different angle of view to explore the international trade’s impact on domestic and global carbon emissions.Foreign trade played an important role in the process of China’s economic development,but how it is an important issue to use a minimum input for maximum output through the international trade and without huge damage to the environment.In the specific analysis,although there is a lot of literature related to our country foreign trade implicit carbon emissions,but they were given with comprehensive research,and were relatively few in industry sector research.As a matter of fact,every industry has its particularity,and it should be targeted to analyze.As everyone knows that China is not only an agricultural country,but also an agricultural product international trade country.According to the ministry of agriculture,China’s agricultural products trade has been showed a trend of year after year to expand the scale in recent years.Agricultural trade leads to a large amount of embodied carbon transfer in the spaces between the countries,and existing research shows that about a quarter of China’s carbon emissions used to satisfy the production and consumption demand from consumers abroad.Along with China’s agricultural product import and export scale rising continuously,the impacts of the trade on China’s carbon emissions will be more and more enormous.This paper will focus on studding carbon embodied in China’s agricultural international trade.Firstly,we collated research literature at home and abroad systematically,and made necessary comments,then find a research starting point.Afterwards,we reviewed China’s agricultural products foreign trade development process,with comprehensive accounting China’s agriculture carbon emissions and analyzing its temporal and spatial characteristics.On this basis,on the one hand,we used the theory of co-integration to analyze China’s agricultural products of foreign trade and the relationship between the agricultural carbon emissions.On the other hand,by adopting the method of input-output analysis we tried to measure China’s agricultural products trade embodied carbon,and discuss the difference of its temporal and spatial characteristics and drive mechanism.Next,from both vertical and horizontal perspective,we analyzed China’s agricultural product trade growth and implied carbon emission with the decoupling relationship,and found out the main factor that lead to its decoupling relationship change based on the factorization method.Finally,on the basis of induction and summary of the international climate change cooperation and coping mechanisms,this work also put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions,in order to provide the necessary data to support and policy reference to promote agricultural trade in China implied carbon for the construction of the prevention and control system.The research content mainly divided into research origin and literature review(Chapter 1),agricultural products foreign trade relations with agricultural carbon emissions(Chapter 2 and 3),agricultural products foreign trade implicit carbon measure and relevant mechanism research(Chapter 4 and 5),agricultural trade implicit carbon emissions control mechanism construction(Chapter 6and 7).On the basis of the analysis above,we may basically draw the following conclusions:(1)Both China’s agricultural international trade and agricultural carbon emissions are on the rise as a whole,and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among each of them and carbon emissions.Since 1980 s,China’s agricultural international trade has been developing rapidly,and the trade pattern has changed dramatically.The status of agricultural product international trade in the world became more and more important.According to the change of import and export trade in China,it can be divided into four stages: slow development stage(1978-1986),stable development phase(1987-1993),wander stage of development(1994-2002)and rapid development stage(2003-2011).Meanwhile,China’s agricultural carbon emissions overall also has been in growth.From the temporal evolution law,it can be divide into five stages: fluctuations in growth(1993-1999),stationary phase(1999-2002),continue to rise period(2002-2006),continued to decline period(2006-2008)and continue to rise period(2008-2012).Based on the theory of dynamic time sequence and related modeling method,the study did an empirical analysis on the interactive relationship between agricultural international trade and agricultural carbon emission in our country,and it turned out that firstly,there is a co-integration relationship between China’s agricultural international trade and agricultural carbon emissions,also called the long-term equilibrium relationship.But in the short term it will deviate from the long-term equilibrium.In the relationship,agricultural imports makes the adjustments of 61.17% to short-term deviations from equilibrium,agricultural product export makes 92.42%;Secondly,agricultural products import and export has a causal relationship with agricultural carbon emissions;Thirdly,the impact of agricultural imports is able to explain56.36% of agricultural carbon emissions change,carbon emissions change on the interpretation of the imported level is only 1.70%,while the impact of the agricultural exports could explain 22.69% of agricultural carbon emissions,carbon emissions on the interpretation of the export level is only 0.57%.So agricultural products import and export trade has a large impact on carbon emissions change.(2)China’s agricultural international trade embodied carbon was overall increase,and large carbon emissions provinces were mainly located in the eastern region.Scale effect is the key factor of agricultural international trade embodied carbon increasing.With the import and export trade data,using multiple regional MRIO model,China’s agricultural trade embodied carbon emissions from 2002 to 2011 was calculated.And from the analysis on the temporal features,it can be found that China’s agricultural exports,imports embodied carbon emissions was in growth as a whole,and the latter growth faster than the former since 2002.The net exports of agricultural products embodied carbon emissions was reducing year by year,and only being positive in 2002.That means China has become a country whose carbon pollution is transfered out since2003.Further,exploring China’s 31 provinces(cities,districts)of agricultural products import and export trade embodied carbon emissions and its spatial distribution characteristics.The results show that the import and export of embodied carbon emissions and net export carbon larger provinces are mostly located in the eastern regions,and embodied carbon emissions was relatively small in the Midwest.Finally,using the LMDI factor decomposition method to explore the influence factors of the agricultural product export embodied carbon emissions.Decomposition results show that structure effect,scale effect on the change of the China’s agricultural exports embodied carbon emission contribution value was positive,which means that both of structure effect and scale effect had promoted the agricultural exports embodied carbon emissions continue to increase to a certain extent,in which scale effect played a critical role;Technology effect on the change of the China’s agricultural exports embodied carbon emission contribution value was negative,which implies in the technical effect inhibited the change of carbon emissions embodied in China agricultural export trade,and promoted the agricultural trade carbon pollution moved to other countries to a certain extent.(3)There is a weak Tapio relationship between China’s agricultural product export trade and export embodied carbon,and only a few industries have significantly reduced carbon emissions intensity.Resource structure and resource efficiency are the key factors influencing the Tapio elasticity.By using Tapio model to explore the relationship between the agricultural export trade embodied carbon pollution,it turns out that:(1)From 2002 to 2011,there exists a long time "weak Tapio" relationship between the export of Chinese agricultural product export trade and embodied carbon emissions under export-oriented trade mode,and carbon emissions is increase with the export trade growth.This suggests that China’s agricultural product export trade contribute to China’s economic growth,at the same time,both brought a lot of carbon emissions on homeland,also for the importer to discharge a large amount of carbon,there is a "carbon transfer" phenomenon.(2)From the point of industry,few industries had obviously lower carbon intensity,such as food manufacturing and furniture manufacturing.They basically achieved the relationship transformations from the "weak Tapio" to the "strong Tapio" between the agricultural carbon emissions and product export trade.But it is important to alert that carbon intensity be growing in most of the export-oriented agricultural industry in China,especially in agriculture,forestry,fishery,agricultural food processing,tobacco products,textiles,leather,fur,feather and its products and footwear.The decoupling state acceleration showed a trend of "expansionary Tapio" status in recent years,it shows out that the traditional comparative advantage of agricultural products export growth’s dependence on the consumption of resources is stronger,and it needs urgently to speed up the transformation of modes of production and export.(3)From the perspective of the results of five factors decomposition,from 2002 to 2011,the key element that influence China’s agricultural product export trade growth and agriculture carbon Tapio elastic are resource structure and resource use efficiency Tapio elastic.The agricultural product export growth Tapio elasticity,resources carbon intensity decoupling of flexibility and the population of Tapio elasticity have a certain positive role on the Tapio relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural product export trade growth.But it’s still not outstanding enough.The innovation of the research may mainly be reflected in these three aspects:(1)It has analyzed the interrelationship between China’s foreign trade of agricultural products and agricultural carbon emissions,and revealed the deep interaction mechanism between them.On the one hand,agricultural products foreign trade data was collected,and the value of agricultural carbon emissions was carefully measured;On this basis,using co-integration theory and the related model respectively to explore the correlation between China import trade of agricultural products and export trade and agriculture carbon emissions.The study deeply reveals the interaction mechanism,influence degree and internal control mechanism between foreign trade of agricultural products and agricultural carbon emissions.(2)The embodied carbon emissions in China’s agricultural foreign trade have been calculated,and the temporal and spatial characteristics and the driving factors for agricultural exports embodied carbon emissions has been analyzed.In chapter 4 of this article,we not only measured China’s foreign trade of agricultural products since 2002 implied carbon emissions,but also analyzed the differences and explored its space and the regional distribution of fairness.On that basis,LMDI decomposition method was used to study the agricultural exports of implicit drive mechanism of the carbon emissions,which was used to find out the key factors that caused the amount of the change.Overall,compared with the previous research,this paper has a more comprehensive,more in-depth analysis grasp on China’s agricultural products trade implicit carbon,which will help strengthen our macro cognitive.(3)This study also explored the relationship between China’s agricultural international trade and the embodied carbon pollution,and decomposed its influence factors.In chapter 5 of this study,combined with the data collected on agricultural product export trade,and the data calculated of the agricultural exports embodied carbon emissions,we analyzed the relationship from both vertical and horizontal perspective by using Tapio model.On this basis,the study introduced the LMDI decomposition method into the Tapio decoupling model,explaining the effect mechanism between agricultural export trade growth and the embodied carbon emissions.The influencing degree of every main factor has been involved in.