Dynamic Changes And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Chinese Provinces

In recent years,the issue of global climate change caused by carbon emissions has attracted the attention of governments.As a large agricultural country,the issue of agricultural carbon emissions has attracted much attention.With the rapid development of social economy,the scale of population has increased sharply,and the demand for grain has increased.So,Agricultural production is under pressure.For increasing the grain output,increasing the amount of chemical fertilizer and pesticide which is the main source of agricultural carbon emissions will cause the increase of agricultural carbon emissions,and cause the frequent natural disasters in the world.Therefore,the task of agricultural emission reduction is imminent.Agricultural emission reduction is the key link and important prerequisite for achieving sustainable agricultural development.In order to achieve the goal of agricultural emission reduction better,it is the primary task to scientifically identify the changing rules of agricultural carbon emission and the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions.This paper takes 31 provinces(cities districts)of China as the research object,based on panel data from 2003 to 2015 year,uses carbon conversion coefficient method to estimate the carbon emissions of 31 provinces in China,and studies the dynamic changes of carbon emissions in agriculture.On this basis,according to the ISM model and the entropy-gray correlation analysis model,and analyze the impact factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the province.The main research results are as follows:(1)The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in China has been increasing year by year,but the overall growth rate has gradually weakened.Among the carbon sources studied,chemical fertilizers is the major carbon emission sources affecting agricultural carbon emissions.The degree of impact of carbon sources on agricultural carbon emissions from large to small is chemical fertilizers,agricultural films,agricultural diesel,pesticides,agricultural irrigation and ploughing.There are obvious regional differences in agricultural carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in China,and,the indexes of the main carbon row areas are high,which about the level of urbanization economic,and technological level,and population size of the major carbon areas are all high.Among them,the provinces of Fujian,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Guangdong have the highest level of carbon intensity,and the level of opening to the outside is highest.(2)Of the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions,the population size,the level of rural education and the degree of natural disasters are the fundamental factors,which will directly or indirectly affect the other 12 impact factors discussed.Improving the population size,the level of rural education and the degree of natural disasters will have a positive impact of carbon emissions,promote the development of low-carbon economy and increase the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction.Of the 10 evaluation indexes discussed,the order of the degree of opening to the outside world,the forest carbon sink,the population scale,the technological level,the agricultural industrial structure,the level of agricultural economic development,the level of agricultural public investment,natural disasters and urbanization levels,for the 31 provincial agricultural carbon emissions,in order from the largest to the smallest.According to the 10 evaluation indexes discussed,the levels of agricultural carbon emission relatedness in 31 provinces from high to low are Tianjin,Tibet,Ningxia,Qinghai,Beijing,Xinjiang.Fujian,Gansu,Liaoning,Hainan,Guizhou,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanghai,Heilongjiang,Shanxi,Hunan,Yunnan,Jiangxi,Jilin,Henan,Guangxi,Hubei,Zhejiang,Chongqing,Anhui,Hebei,Sichuan,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shandong.Among them,Tianjin has the highest degree of correlation,and lower carbon emissions from agriculture,also,the correlation degree of Shandong is the lowest,and the carbon emissions from agriculture is the highest,and the carbon emission problem is serious.(3)According to the results of studies on the dynamic changes of agricultural carbon emissions and the influencing factors,the following suggestions are proposed;the first is to establishing a low-carbon agricultural development mechanism,and identify agricultural emission reduction targets;the second is to improve the level of development of agricultural science and technology,and reduce carbon emissions from agriculture,and create an innovation system for agricultural science and technology;and third is to adjust measures to local conditions and reduce carbon emissions.