| At present,the development of the world economy is in the era of a high-carbon economy,and the global warming effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions is becoming more and more serious.It has become the consensus of all countries to develop low-carbon economy,energy conservation and emission reduction.In 2020,China announced its vision of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.The president of the People’s Republic of China stressed: We should integrate carbon peaking and carbon neutralization into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction.As the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions,agriculture can not be ignored in carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.Therefore,the green development of agriculture is imperative.As a typical traditional agricultural province in Western China,Guangxi is facing contradictions and problems in the process of promoting high-quality agricultural development,such as the coexistence of shortage of agricultural resources and fragile ecological environment,low utilization rate of agricultural factors and increasing agricultural non-point source pollution.In recent years,the input of chemical fertilizer,pesticide,agricultural film and agricultural machinery in Guangxi’s agricultural production has been reduced.Some achievements have been made in the green development of Guangxi’s agriculture,and the growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions has been restrained.In the future,while stabilizing agricultural economic growth and agricultural transformation and upgrading,how to realize agricultural low-carbon green circular development is one of the important challenges for Guangxi to further promote agricultural supply side structural reform,accelerate agricultural high-quality development and promote the construction of ecological civilization.This study takes agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi as the research object to explore the relationship between agricultural economic growth,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi.Firstly,it analyzes and explains the current situation of agricultural economic development,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi.Secondly,it uses the decoupling model to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi,explores the relationship between agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi by means of stepwise multiple regression,and uses the vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic growth,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission in Guangxi;Finally,from the perspective of agricultural economic development and agricultural industrial agglomeration,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction in Guangxi.Research findings:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi showed an overall downward trend.The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions decreased from 14.40 million tons in 2005 to 12.57 million tons in 2019,with an average annual decrease of 1.04%;The carbon emission per 10000 yuan of agricultural output value decreased from 994.09 kg in 2005 to 238.05 kg in 2019,with an average annual decrease of 9.71%.From the perspective of carbon emission structure,the proportion of carbon emission from paddy field is the largest,and the proportion of carbon emission from livestock and poultry breeding is the smallest;In terms of stages,the three-stage change characteristics of "decline rise decline" are obvious.(2)From the perspective of the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emission,The decoupling elasticity index of agricultural carbon emission and economic growth in Guangxi from 2005 to 2019 is between-4.084 and 0.163.The decoupling types are mainly ideal weak decoupling and strong decoupling,The decoupling state gradually transits from "alternating weak decoupling,strong decoupling and strong negative decoupling" to "strong decoupling state".(3)From the perspective of the relationship between agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission,there is an "inverted U-shaped" characteristic relationship between Guangxi Agricultural Industrial Agglomeration and its total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emission.The total amount and intensity of carbon emission increase first and then decrease with the development of agricultural industrial agglomeration;Compared with planting industry agglomeration,animal husbandry industry agglomeration is more conducive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Guangxi.(4)From the perspective of the relationship between agricultural economic growth,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission,there is no two-way Granger relationship between agricultural economic growth,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission,but there is a one-way Granger relationship,that is,agricultural industrial economic growth and agricultural industrial agglomeration are the Granger reasons for agricultural carbon emission,which is not tenable in turn;Agricultural economic growth has a lasting positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions;The impact effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration on agricultural carbon emission is negative,and the impact effect of agricultural economic growth on agricultural industrial agglomeration is not obvious;The growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions is affected by the growth rate of agricultural economy and agricultural industrial agglomeration.In order to promote the low-carbon green circular development of agriculture in Guangxi and coordinate the relationship between agricultural economic growth,agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural carbon emission,Guangxi should change the mode of agricultural development,extend the agricultural industrial chain,optimize the layout of agricultural industry,accelerate the green development of agriculture,strengthen the innovation of agricultural science and technology,and increase government policy support. |
