Research On The Development Of China's Port-industry-city Interactive Relationship From The Perspective Of Co-evolutio

As an important branch of the transportation field,the planning and management of the port and shipping industry is not only highly related to the development of the city’s economy,but more importantly,it belongs to the productive service industry and is closely related to China’s industrial transformation and upgrading.From the perspective of co-evolution,the interactive relationship between these three subsystems of port,industry and city presents the characteristics of complexity and dynamics,and is closely related to the environment in which they are located,including historical traceability,institutional culture,and changes in the times.From 1840 to 2021,China has undergone closed-door policy,reform and opening up,and continued expansion of opening up based on the "Belt and Road" initiative.The function of the port and shipping industry has also changed from supporting the transportation of water and grain to supporting global trade,which has made great contributions to the development of the national economy.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,General Secretary Xi has inspected ports many times and proposed the goal of building a world-class port,and believes that there is an inevitable connection between an economic power and a shipping power.In addition,after missing the first two industrial revolutions,China is facing the trend of the fourth global industrial revolution.On the other hand,from the perspective of the international environment,the global financial crisis in 2008,the Sino-U.S.trade war in 2018,and the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019 undoubtedly no longer herald the increasing uncertainty in the international situation in recent years.Important events such as these have affected ports,cities,and industries.Relationship has a driving effect.Under the above background,there are three key issues that have not yet been clarified.First,the extension of the port concept has gradually expanded,and the dry port and airport economy has gradually matured in the exploration.However,there is a lack of empirical evidence to prove whether different types of inland port transportation nodes have significant causal relationships with urban economies and industries.This is related to whether the ports can be used as an important factor affecting the interaction of port-industry-city;secondly,according to the characteristics as complexity and dynamics of the evolution of the synergistic relationship between portindustry-city and its evolution mechanism cannot be clearly explained by a simple linear regression model.That is,in the course of evolution,the sudden change of the synergy relationship tends to change from quantitative to qualitative,but there is a lack of threshold analysis of related variables.Third,it is well known that the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the world is no less than that of the 2008 financial crisis.There are many theoretical studies that compare the impact of these two issues,and even believe that the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic is even greater.However,the evolution of attitudes towards scholars only stays at the level of theoretical research,and there is a lack of quantitative methods to systematically sort out.This thesis takes the interactive relationship between port,industry and city as the research object,and analyzes it from the perspective of co-evolution.First,select all the SCI/SSCI and Chinese thesiss can be found for bibliometric analysis,and use 2008 and 2019 as two important time nodes,which are divided into stages,and from the perspective of academic research,evolution path and frontier issues are obtained,and at the same time,provides theoretical evidence for how to deal with the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.Secondly,this thesis analyzes the evolution trend of the three subsystems of Chinese ports,industry,and cities.Through the construction of a multiindex synthesis method and a kernel density function,the quantitative calculations can reflect internal regular pattern and analyze existing problems.Then,further empirical analysis of inland port transportation node is investigated,aiming to provide theoretical support for the extension of the port concept in this study,and prove the causal relationship between dry ports and urban economy and industry,which is based on externality theory from both macro and micro levels.After that,this thesis further constructs a nonlinear dynamic panel model,focusing on empirical testing of the impact of railway ports and technological investment on the co-evolution of coastal port cities.Finally,based on the results of quantitative research,this thesis proposes countermeasures and suggestions for the changes brought about by the post-epidemic era based on existing data.The main conclusions of this thesis include the following five aspects.(1)The changes of the times have caused major changes in the subject terms.Under the influence of the Covid-19 epidemic,scholars have changed the frontier issues of the research on the interactive relationship between port,industry and city,not only have new themes appear,but the number of important themes to be resolved at the level of port,industry interaction has increased significantly.Therefore,how to improve the performance of cities and industries through ports has become one of the important frontier issues that must be solved urgently in the post-Covid-19 era.At the same time,although related topics are always hot,the academic achievements and practical applications in the context of our country are still relatively weak,and the application of theories is insufficient.In addition,although most scholars have reached a consensus on the need for in-depth research on the function of dry ports,the economic benefits of cities independently produced by them become the frontier issues of future research.(2)In the overall development process of Chinese cities,the economic strength is obviously better,but the growth potential is slightly weaker,and the degree of technology has not kept up with the overall development speed.The overall development of industry is mainly driven by industrial scale.Secondly,coastal cities and Inland cities are showing different trends.Affected by factors such as the Sino-US trade war,coastal cities are slightly weaker in terms of opening up.Their industries mainly focus on economic effects,while dry port cities benefit from the "Belt and Road"initiative,which is more manifested in economic strength,and its industrial social contribution index is significantly lower.Finally,when analyzing the evolution of ports,the production and operation indicators of all samples are relatively weak.In addition,due to reliance on the original path and other reasons,cities such as Shanghai that develop high-tech industries as their leading industries will still need a port industry with transportation as the main function in the next five years.(3)Through the use of macro and micro data,the empirical results of inland port transportation nodes economic spillover effects support the causality test,and become one of the factors that affect the interaction between port,industry and city.It will bring economic benefits to the local area.Due to the differences in the characteristics of the three,the mechanism of action on the urban industry is different.The port of highway and the railway have a significant pulling effect on the gross production value of industrial enterprises.The more special one is the airport.while the promotion effect of air transportation nodes on the city is more clearly reflected in the city’s leading industry,simply verifying the promotion effect on the overall GDP or a certain industry become the main reason leading to the contrary of research results.(4)A good degree of coupling and coordination among ports,industries,and cities has a significant positive effect on promoting the comprehensive development of cities.However,due to the difference and complexity of the evolution process of different subsystems,the effect of the synergistic effect of port-industry-city on the comprehensive development level of the city presents a nonlinear characteristic.With the increasing maturity of dry port construction,when the railway freight volume reaches the threshold,the synergistic effect between subsystems will significantly increase the promotion of the comprehensive development level of the city.In the process of technological development,the total number of R&D personnel in industrial enterprises is not the better.It is necessary to consider the capital input and output,and blindly increasing labor input,on the contrary,weakens the strength of the synergy effect of port-industry-city on the comprehensive development level of the city.The input of personnel may not necessarily produce the expected benefits.(5)In terms of the co-evolution mechanism of port-industry-city co-evolution,changes in the macro-environment have a direct impact on the co-evolution relationship between the system.This impact can be understood as a forced change of cognition and quick response measures to cope with negative impacts.As time changes,this interactive relationship has gradually stabilized from imbalance.Until the next environmental change,the transition of the interactive relationship between port,industry and city should be regarded as a cumulative process of changes in key elements,and the environment in which the subsystem is located is dynamic.The changes have changed the traditional cognition pattern.Under the constant collision of the past and the present,the upgrading of subsystems and the transformation of the interactive relationship between them are completed.The significance of the effect is the impact on the overall macro-environmental economic performance.The innovations of this thesis can be summarized into the following three points.First,breaking through the definition of port in the interaction between port industry and city,and uses quantitative methods to verify the mechanism of dry ports on the inland cities where they are located,and regards dry ports as capable of influencing the co-evolution of port-industry-cities.At the same time,through comparative analysis of the evolution situation of the comprehensive development level of dry port cities,industry and ports,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,improve the credibility of the empirical research conclusions.Secondly,it has innovated the existing research perspective and further deepened the co-evolution mechanism of port,industry and city.Break through the limitations of the established linear thinking and one-way thinking in the existing research,exploratoryly use the threshold regression model to measure the nonlinear threshold effect of the port-industry-city coupling coordination degree on the comprehensive development level of the city,and use this as a basis to reveal how the coordinated development of the three influences the comprehensive development of the city during the evolution of its interactive relationship.Third,optimize existing policy effect assessment methods by using the externality theory to construct SCM-DID and SCM-BP neural network models to improve the accuracy of evaluation results in quasi-experimental research methods.On the one hand,it breaks the limitations of a single approach.At the same time,the further use of micro-industrial enterprise data on the basis of macro-data analysis enables more detailed and comprehensive investigations,and the results are more convincing.