| In recent years,China has been in a comprehensive stage of rapid development,and social stability is the fundamental condition for ensuring social development and the common prosperity of the people.Since the "13th Five-Year Plan," the country has vigorously promoted comprehensive natural disaster management,shifting the focus from single disaster management to comprehensive disaster prevention,mitigation,and relief.The emphasis has shifted from single disaster types to multiple disaster types and disaster chains.With the intensification of climate change,the development of society,the continuous expansion and enhancement of human activities,and the increasing concentration of population,buildings,economy,politics,culture,and other factors,the chain risks of natural disasters are also increasing.The complexity and high variability of disaster chain risks pose severe challenges and threats to traditional disaster management and disaster prevention and mitigation efforts,making it an important issue for natural disaster prevention and control in China.Therefore,this study focuses on the research of natural disaster chains.Previous studies have shown that resilience is one of the key factors determining the extent of disaster damage.Resilience is used to represent the ability to cope with changes and uncertainties.It is a new concept driving the sustainable development of social systems.Resilience building can promote the organic integration of emergency management and sustainable development,and it is an important path for effectively resisting risks and promoting sustainable development globally.Therefore,it is urgent to enhance the resilience of China’s social systems to cope with disaster chains.Enhancing the regional resilience of disaster chains in China involves several core issues:(1)How to assess the distribution pattern and risk of disaster chains in China?(2)How to systematically clarify the key influencing factors of regional resilience of disaster chains and their relationships and influence paths?(3)How to establish appropriate evaluation models and methods for regional resilience of disaster chains?(4)How to determine efficient strategies and key paths for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains from a quantitative perspective? Solving these core issues can help decision-makers correctly understand the risks of disaster chains,timely interrupt the chain reactions of disasters,mitigate the impact of disaster chain risks on society,and enhance the disaster prevention,mitigation,and response capabilities of regions facing disaster chains.The research has significant theoretical implications for improving the theory and methods of resilience in the field of disaster in China and has important practical implications for strengthening disaster chain prevention,mitigation,and promoting sustainable social development.Therefore,based on the National Natural Science Foundation project,this study takes the perspective of disaster chains and focuses on the above core issues.It comprehensively applies methods such as ISM-Fuzzy DEMATEL-OSTU-ISM model,integrated evaluation model based on multi-attribute decision-making methods,and input-output analysis to study the distribution pattern analysis and risk assessment of disaster chains,identification and evaluation of key influencing factors of regional resilience of disaster chains,and strategies for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)Research on regional differentiation analysis and chain risk assessment of disaster chains.Data on major natural disaster chains in China were collected and extracted.The distribution patterns of different types of disaster chains in different regions were summarized and analyzed.The reasons for the significant spatial differentiation of disaster chain distribution in China were thoroughly analyzed,providing a basis for selecting research objects and areas for subsequent studies.Meanwhile,a risk assessment framework for disaster chains was established to distinguish between economic risk and population risk,providing a research foundation for evaluating the effectiveness,benefits,and efficiency of strategies to enhance regional resilience of disaster chains.Taking the typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai City as an example,an indepth analysis of economic risk and population risk associated with the typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai City was conducted,and key nodes of the disaster chain that need to be focused on were identified.The research found that the distribution of disaster chains in China exhibits typical regional differences.Regarding the typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai City,measures should be taken to reduce economic losses caused by storm surges,landslides,floods,and damage to fishponds,while attention should be given to measures to reduce deaths caused by capsizing of boats and house collapses.Finally,based on the risk propagation network model of disaster chains,relevant characteristics of the risk evolution of disaster chains were summarized: interdependence,incrementality,diversity,diffusion,non-linearity,and cumulative effects.(2)Identification of key influencing factors of regional resilience of disaster chains and analysis of the hierarchical relationships between these factors.Based on the characteristics of risk evolution in disaster chains and the core capabilities of resilience(prevention,preparedness,response,recovery,and adaptation)in the context of modern emergency management,a list of factors influencing regional resilience of disaster chains was determined.The Interpretive Structural Modeling(ISM)method was used to identify the top-level design factors influencing the regional resilience of disaster chains.The Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method was employed to analyze the influence,affectedness,centrality,and causality of the remaining factors.The OSTU method was then used to transform the overall influence matrix into a reachable matrix.Subsequently,an ISM-based multi-level hierarchical structure model was constructed to identify direct,intermediate,and fundamental influencing factors and analyze the pathways for improving economic resilience and population resilience.The results indicate that the top-level design factors influencing regional resilience planning for disaster chains mainly focus on prevention,preparedness,and adaptation.The fundamental influencing factors are insurance protection,the ability of emergency command and government departments to coordinate and respond to chain disruptions and disaster reduction in disaster chain scenarios,the degree of emergency resource preparedness in disaster chain scenarios,and ecological environment restoration and governance.The direct influencing factors include housing quality,medical assistance capabilities,emergency evacuation capabilities,and basic living security.The most important pathways for enhancing economic resilience and population resilience in disaster chains exhibit differences.The research findings were validated using the case of the typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai City,confirming the reliability of the results.This part of the research provides a foundation for further exploration of regional resilience assessment and strategies for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains.(3)Research on the evaluation models and methods of regional resilience of disaster chains.Based on the capabilities of prevention,preparedness,response,recovery,and adaptation,and considering the factors influencing regional resilience identified in the previous stage,a comprehensive indicator system for measuring regional resilience of disaster chains was established from economic,social,infrastructure,and environmental perspectives.An integrated evaluation model based on multi-attribute decision-making methods,considering various weighting and evaluation approaches,was proposed to obtain objective and consistent evaluation results.Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example,the regional resilience of disaster chains in 17 counties/districts in the area was studied.The research results show that the level of regional resilience of disaster chains in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is relatively low,especially in counties such as Wushan,Zigui,Kaizhou,Zhongxian,and Badong.Geographically,the regional resilience of disaster chains gradually decreases from the Chongqing reservoir area to Hubei.The geographic distribution of environmental resilience is similar to that of regional resilience of disaster chains,indicating that enhancing natural environmental resilience is an important approach to strengthening regional resilience of disaster chains.(4)Research on strategies to enhance regional resilience of disaster chains.Based on the construction of the disaster chain network structure diagram,risk analysis,and identification of key influencing factors of disaster chains,a resilience enhancement strategy framework for regional resilience of disaster chains was established from the perspective of collaborative governance,considering the strengthening of prevention,preparedness,response,recovery,and adaptation capabilities.Then,the effects of different strategies on enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains were determined from the perspectives of governance measures,governance difficulty and probability,governance effects,benefits,and efficiency.This process aimed to identify the optimal strategies and critical paths for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains.Finally,the proposed model and methods were empirically analyzed using the case of the typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai City.A comparison between the proposed model and methods and complex network methods demonstrated the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach.The research findings indicate that strengthening prevention and preparedness capabilities is an important strategy for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains,and improving adaptation capabilities can comprehensively enhance regional resilience of disaster chains.The main innovations of this study are reflected in the following three aspects:(1)Proposed an analysis method for identifying influential factors based on ISMFuzzy DEMATEL-OSTU-ISM model.This method provides a useful approach for systematically clarifying the influential factors of regional resilience of disaster chains,identifying top-level design factors,direct factors,and fundamental factors of regional resilience,and understanding the pathways of interaction between influential factors.To identify the top-level design factors of regional resilience of disaster chains,the ISM method was innovatively used.The Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM model is often used to clarify the degree of influence and hierarchical structure among factors.However,many researchers have not considered the subjectivity in transforming the overall influence matrix into a reachable matrix.Therefore,the OSTU method was used to determine the threshold for transforming the overall influence matrix into a reachable matrix,reducing subjectivity.The proposed model provides an effective method for the study of influential factors.(2)Constructed a theoretical model for regional resilience of disaster chains and an integrated evaluation model based on multi-attribute decision-making methods.This allows for a scientific and reasonable assessment of regional resilience of disaster chains and provides new theories and evaluation models for research on the assessment of regional resilience of disaster chains.Starting from a comprehensive perspective(social,economic,environmental,and infrastructure),a theoretical model for the evaluation of regional resilience of disaster chains was constructed,considering core capabilities such as prevention,preparedness,response,recovery,and adaptation,and establishing a corresponding indicator system.An integrated evaluation model was proposed,considering three weighting methods and six evaluation methods,to overcome the limitations of a single evaluation method and achieve objectivity and scientificity in the assessment of regional resilience of disaster chains.The research provides a reference evaluation system and evaluation methods for the assessment of regional resilience of disaster chains.(3)Established an analysis framework for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains considering the effectiveness of disaster chain governance from a quantitative perspective.This provides a new approach for objectively analyzing strategies to enhance regional resilience of disaster chains.Currently,case analysis methods are mainly used to study strategies for disaster chain governance,which are subjective and cannot quantify the effectiveness of different strategies in enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains.The research constructed a comprehensive risk assessment framework for disaster chain nodes,considering economic and population risks as well as direct and indirect risks,to address the inconsistency in measuring standards for population and economic risk levels.The study also applied the difficulty of governance and governance efficiency to the research on strategies for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains,considering the implementation difficulty and probability of governance measures.It modeled the benefits and efficiency of governance measures from the perspective of input-output and analyzed the synergistic governance efficiency of various governance measures to more accurately identify inefficient governance measures.Through comparative analysis,more effective strategies for enhancing regional resilience of disaster chains were determined,and critical paths under different strategies were identified,providing decision support for research on strategies to enhance regional resilience of disaster chains. |
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