| As a complex open system composed of human beings and nature,city is bound to face various impacts and pressures during its operation.These shocks and pressures are characterized by obvious uncertainty and risk,which pose a great threat to human life safety and social and economic development.Natural disasters occur frequently in Shandong Province,with many kinds,high frequency and heavy losses,which have a serious impact on the province’s economic and social development and the safety of people’s lives and property.In the context of global warming,the risk of natural disasters such as drought,flood,hail,typhoon,snow disaster,cryogenic freezing and landslide in Shandong Province has further increased,and all kinds of disasters are becoming increasingly sudden,abnormal and difficult to predict.With the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of urban population density,the problems of environmental pollution and resource shortage are becoming more and more serious.Improving urban resilience is the frontier idea and the latest paradigm of urban safety development,which is of great significance to solve the natural disaster threat in Shandong Province.In this paper,Shandong Province is taken as the study area,and the entropy weighted summing model is used to measure the urban resilience index of 16prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020.The spatial analysis method is applied to explore the spatial and temporal pattern evolution and summarize the cities of different evolution types.The main factors affecting urban resilience are extracted by the geographical detector model.Finally,according to the research results,the improvement path of urban toughness in Shandong Province is proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the urban resilience of Shandong Province showed an overall rising trend,with the average resilience index rising from 0.4041 to 0.5546.However,there is still a large gap in the resilience index of different cities.By 2020,Jinan City has the highest resilience index in Shandong Province,with a resilience index of 0.7267.The lowest toughness index was 0.3739 in Heze City.The resilience index of all subsystems showed an increase state,but the increase amplitude was quite different.The resilience index of society had the largest increase,with an increase of0.0902,and the resilience index of infrastructure had the smallest increase,with an increase of 0.0067.The smaller standard deviation and coefficient of variation of urban toughness indicate that the overall dispersion of urban toughness in Shandong Province is reduced and the development among cities is more balanced.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the number of cities with high and high toughness grade increased,while the number of cities with low toughness grade decreased,and the urban toughness was greatly improved.From a regional perspective,urban resilience in coastal areas is significantly higher than that in inland areas.In 2020,among the 10 cities with high toughness rating in Shandong Province,7 are coastal cities(Qingdao,Yantai,Weihai,Rizhao,Weifang,Dongying and Binzhou),while only 3 are inland cities(Jinan,Zibo and Jining).The increase of the global Moreland index of urban resilience in Shandong Province indicates that the spatial correlation of urban resilience is improved,and cities with similar resilience indexes tend to cluster further in space.In the local space,it shows the spatial distribution characteristics of coastal hot spot cities and inland cold spot cities.(3)By 2020,Shandong Province has four types of urban resilience spatio-temporal evolution: high(high level and high growth)type,high(high level and low growth)type,low high(low level and high growth)type and low low(low level and low growth)type.The number of high-class cities is the largest,including 9cities such as Jinan and Qingdao.There are 4 low-grade cities;The only low-grade city is Zaozhuang;Low-and low-type cities include Heze and Dezhou.(4)From 2010 to 2020,the coupling coordination degree of urban resilience and economic development in Shandong Province increased from the severe imbalance in2010 to the advanced coordination in 2020.Both urban resilience and economic development level were improved,and the relationship between them became more coordinated.There are obvious regional differences in the coupling coordination between urban resilience and economic development in Shandong Province,forming a spatial differentiation pattern of stronger east and weaker west,and better coastal than inland.By 2020,Jinan,Qingdao and Dongying had achieved high-level coordination,while most other cities were in the primary and intermediate stages,with primary coordination accounting for the majority.This indicates that most cities in Shandong Province are still in the adjustment period of urban resilience and economic development,unable to achieve a higher level of coupling and coordinated development,and there is still a large room for improvement in the future.(5)The detection results of geographical detectors show that different dimensions have different influences on urban toughness.The social dimension has the greatest impact intensity,followed by infrastructure,economy and ecology.The single impact factor detection results show that by 2020,the largest molecular explanatory power in social resilience is the number of medical insurance participants per 10,000 people,the largest molecular explanatory power in infrastructure resilience is the number of Internet access users per 10,000 people,and the largest molecular explanatory power in economic resilience is the per capita disposable income of urban residents.The largest molecular explanation of ecological resilience is water resources per capita.In the double-factor interaction detection,there is a double-factor mutual enhancement relationship between the two influencing factors,indicating that the measurement results of urban resilience are not completely determined by a single influencing factor or a single type of influencing factor,but by the combined effects of multiple influencing factors such as economy,ecology,society and infrastructure.Among them,the interaction force between economic factor and other influencing factors is the largest,indicating that economic factor and other influencing factors interact with each other to play a greater role in spatial differentiation of urban resilience.(6)Explore ways to improve urban resilience in Shandong Province from three aspects: urban resilience subsystem,spatial coordination,urban resilience and coordinated economic development.Adjust the industrial structure actively,develop the economy and improve the resilience of the city economy;Strengthen environmental protection and use clean energy to improve urban ecological resilience;Ensure employment and increase investment in public utilities to enhance the resilience of urban society;Increase investment in fixed assets and make infrastructure more resilient;To break the communication barriers between cities,strengthen the communication and cooperation between cities in Shandong Province in order to improve the correlation between cities and promote the coordinated development of cities.Urban resilience and Economic development Primary coordinated cities develop their economies,intermediate coordinated cities improve their economic quality,and advanced coordinated cities lead by example. |
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