Evaluation Of Urban Flood Disaster Resilience Based On Improved ELECTERE Ⅲ Method Under The Concept Of Disaster Cycle

With the aggravation of global climate change and the acceleration of urbanization,frequent flood disasters have increasingly severe and complex impacts on human society and natural environment.Therefore,minimizing the loss and impact caused by flood disasters has become an issue that must be considered to maintain economic development.In order to cope with flood that cannot be completely eliminated,it is essential to improve the ability of cities to withstand flood damage.Flood resilience is a novel concept to promote sustainable development and disaster management,and its assessment is the focus of flood disaster research.Based on the analysis of the difference between flood resilience under the concept of “disaster cycle” and traditional flood resilience,this article systematically expounds and scientifically analyzes the definition of flood resilience,the establishment of evaluation index system,the determination of weight and the selection of evaluation methods.Firstly,flood resilience is defined as the ability of different system scales(including communities,cities,watersheds,countries and other levels)to adapt to the impact of disasters and recover to a normal and orderly state as soon as possible through prevention and prediction,absorption and response,recovery regulation and continuous learning under self resistance and external assistance.Secondly,according to its definition,an evaluation index system for urban flood disaster resilience under the concept of “disaster cycle” is established.Focusing on the three periods before,during and after the disaster,the urban flood resilience is divided into prevention and early warning ability,absorption and responsing ability,recovery and reconstruction ability and adaptive ability.Then,in order to solve the shortcomings of the single weighting method,two methods to determine the weight by integrating subjective and objective information is proposed,including the comprehensive weighting method combined with fuzzy Best Worst Method(BWM)and Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation(CRITIC)method to determine the index weight,and the consistency index method of comprehensive subjective and objective information group to determine the expert weight.Finally,the traditional Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realité Ⅲ(ELECTRE Ⅲ)method is improved,and the reference points considering the three reference levels of the decision-making scheme are combined with the traditional ELECTRE Ⅲ method to fit the decision-making process of realistic flood resilience evaluation.Based on the evaluation index system of urban flood resilience and the improved electrre Ⅲ method,considering the fuzzy BWM-CRITIC method of subjective and objective information and the consistency index method of comprehensive subjective and objective information group,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of urban flood resilience,and applies it to the case evaluation of six prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,China.From the overall evaluation results of flood resilience: Wuhan has the strongest flood resilience,followed by Huanggang City,which performs better,Huangshi City,Jingzhou City and Xianning City are the third,fourth and fifth respectively,while Ezhou City has the worst flood resilience.From the evaluation results of each subsystem of flood resilience: Huangshi City and Ezhou City have poor prediction and early warning ability,Ezhou City and Jingzhou City have poor absorption and responsing ability,Huanggang City and Xianning City have poor recovery and reconstruction ability,and Xianning City and Jingzhou City have poor adaptive and learning ability.Then,the practicability and effectiveness of the method are verified by the comparative analysis with other methods and the sensitivity analysis of the index weights.Finally,according to the evaluation results,targeted suggestions are put forward to enhance the resilience of flood disasters in six cities.