Research On Resilience Evaluation Of Crude Oil Supply Chain From The Perspective Of Dynamic Capability

In recent years,with the intensification of global trade frictions,the continuous spread of the epidemic and the frequent outbreak of geopolitical conflicts,in order to ensure the supply security of crude oil resources in the increasingly severe international economic situation,building a flexible,visible,coordinated and resilient flexible supply chain has become an important strategic consideration in the operation and management of the country and refining enterprises.Due to the complexity of the structure of the crude oil supply chain itself and the uncertainty of the operating environment,it is continuously affected by multiple risk factors on the chain in the actual process of resisting risk disturbance,threatening the stable operation of the supply chain.In addition,resilience,as a dynamic ability of the crude oil supply chain to cope with the risk of disruption,is a barrier against external risk disturbances.At present,there is still a lack of an effective crude oil supply chain resilience management system to help refiners gain a head start in strategic decision-making to enhance their risk response capabilities.Therefore,it is of certain theoretical value and practical significance to accurately identify the influencing factors of crude oil supply chain elasticity and deeply analyze the correlation between factors,build a systematic and scientific supply chain elasticity evaluation index system,evaluate the elastic performance of the crude oil supply chain before risks occur,identify the risk weaknesses in the chain,and help refining and chemical enterprises build a high-quality supply chain elastic management system.Based on the theory of crude oil supply chain,supply chain elasticity and dynamic capacity,this paper clarifies the concept,characteristics and formation process of crude oil supply chain elasticity,analyzes the correlation between dynamic capability and crude oil supply chain elasticity,and constructs a hierarchical structure model of influencing factors of crude oil supply chain elasticity through ISM to explore the correlation between factors on the basis of identifying the influencing factors of crude oil supply chain elasticity.Secondly,taking the time stage of crude oil supply chain resistance to risk disturbance as a reference,taking dynamic capacity as the theoretical perspective,the elasticity evaluation index system of crude oil supply chain is preliminarily designed from the three dimensions of absorption capacity,adaptability and resilience,and the Fuzzy DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively select elasticity evaluation indicators,and finally 11 secondary indicators and 22 third-level indicators are obtained.Then,in order to make up for the lack of ambiguity and randomness in the evaluation process,a crude oil supply chain elasticity evaluation model from the perspective of dynamic capability is constructed based on game theory combination weighting-cloud model method,and the optimal combination of subjective and objective weights of crude oil supply chain elasticity evaluation indicators is determined by comprehensive game theory,ANP and entropy weight methods,and an elastic comprehensive cloud model is constructed for elastic evaluation of crude oil supply chain.Finally,Sinopec Zhenhai Refining is used as an example to verify the elasticity evaluation model of crude oil supply chain constructed above,and according to the evaluation results,it provides theoretical and practical references for strategic decisions related to the improvement of crude oil supply chain elasticity of refining and chemical enterprises...