| China is one of the countries with the most serious natural disasters in the world.There are many kinds of disasters,which are widely distributed,occur in high frequency and cause heavy losses.This is a basic national condition.According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR),7,348 major disaster events occurred worldwide from 2000 to 2019,causing economic losses of about US$2.97 trillion.Of all the affected countries,our country has the highest number of disasters in the world.From the perspective of disaster-bearing bodies,rural areas,farmers and agriculture have always been the most vulnerable regions,groups and industries to natural disasters.There are about 200 million rural people suffering from disasters all the year round,and the area of farmland affected by disasters is up to 600 million mu annually.At the same time,rural disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities and emergency management capabilities are generally weak,and the phenomenon of low or no fortification has not been fundamentally changed,leading to great uncertainties in poverty alleviation and the consolidation of achievements in rural development.Therefore,the comprehensive and deep integration of disaster prevention and mitigation into the rural construction process and the continuous enhancement of the resilience of the regional disaster economic system will help fundamentally improve the rural disaster risk management capacity,thus laying a solid foundation for the realization of the strategic goals of rural revitalization.Based on the natural disaster system theory,disaster economics theory and regional economic resilience theory,this paper constructed an evaluation system of rural economic resilience index based on regional disaster system,and used extreme entropy method to measure the rural economic resilience index at the provincial scale.On this basis,GIS technology is used to present the rural economic resilience index in space,and then the temporal characteristics and spatial evolution trend of rural economic resilience in China under the perspective of regional disaster system are discussed in depth.Results show that:(1)during 2009-2018,the rural economy overall toughness is on the rise,shows that our country rural as a whole should be gradually enhance its capability of disaster;By region,the growth rate of rural economic resilience in southwest China is the highest,while that in northeast China is the lowest,indicating that with the implementation of the western development strategy,the disaster prevention environment and disaster bearing bodies in western China are improved,and the rural economic resilience is also improved.From the mean value of resilience,the resilience of rural economy in North China is the strongest,while that in northwest China is the weakest,indicating that there is still a big gap between the eastern and western regions in rural resilience and economic resilience.(2)The resilience level of rural economy in most provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities increased in different degrees during the decade,and the spatial differentiation was obvious.The overall distribution pattern was "high in the east and low in the west".Secondly,kernel density estimation,Theil index decomposition,spatial autocorrelation test and other methods are used to further analyze the resilience of rural economy.The results show that :(1)during the study period,the differences of rural economic resilience levels among provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities show a trend of convergence,and the resilience level gradually increases.(2)Regionally,the differences in inter-regional and intra-regional resilience of rural economy showed a downward trend,and the intra-regional differences were greater than the inter-regional differences.The fluctuation range of the differences was the largest in northeast China and the smallest in central and southern China.(3)From the perspective of space,the rural economic resilience of provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities has significant spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics.Finally,the use of space doberman model(SDM)analysis the influence factors of rural economic resilience.The regression results show that fiscal self-sufficiency rate,forestry investment,urbanization rate,per capita fiscal expenditure on agriculture,forestry and water have significant positive direct and indirect effects on the resilience of rural economy.Indicators such as land area of water conservancy facilities,road density,number of Internet access ports,and amount of agricultural plastic film used can improve the resilience of rural economy in the provinces and cities.The effect of population density and rural electricity consumption on rural economic resilience is not obvious.Based on the analysis of the above influencing factors,the following five suggestions are put forward :(1)promote the modernization of rural disaster management system and capacity,and strengthen the construction of resilient villages.(2)Actively raise and integrate funds to increase the construction of rural public infrastructure.(3)Strengthen the construction of digital countryside and improve the informatization level of rural emergency management.(4)strengthen the ecological environment governance,undergrowth boost economic development.(5)Establish a fiscal and financial linkage mechanism to comprehensively improve the ability of rural natural disaster prevention and control. |
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