| Since the reform and opening up,with the continuous promotion of industrialization and new urbanization,economy has developed at a high speed in China.However,the ensuing environmental degradation of resources have seriously restricted the process of ecological civilization construction.The 20 th report of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "to promote green development and harmonious coexistence between man and nature,we must firmly establish and practice the concept that clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver,and plan development from the height of harmonious coexistence between man and nature." In this context,according to the ecological civilization concept of respecting nature,conforming to nature and protecting nature,establishing an economic and social development model based on the carrying capacity of resources and environment has become an important issue under the "new normal" in China,and is also an important task to promote the construction of ecological civilization.The Yangtze River Economic Belt spans three major zones in the east,middle and west of China,including 11 provinces and cities,and carries more than 40% of the country’s population and economic volume with about 20% of the national territory.Promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is a major strategy related to the overall development of the country.Influenced by natural resources,geographical location and macro policies,the development of Yangtze River Economic Belt is facing a series of contradictions and conflicts between resources,environment and social development.General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed "to step up conservation of the Yangtze River and stop its over development".This requires that the social development of the Yangtze River economic zone should match the carrying capacity of the resources and environment,and promote the sustainable development of the region according to the principle of balanced population,resources and environment.To achieve this goal,it is very necessary to clarify the coupling and coordination characteristics and dynamic evolution mechanism of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in Yangtze River Economic Zone,reveal the influence mechanism of coupling and coordination level,analyze the problems in the process of resource,environment and social coordination development in Yangtze River Economic Zone,and provide scientific reference for promoting high-quality development in Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on the above background,this research is guided by the concept of ecological civilization construction and high-quality development.The resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality evaluation index system are constructed from their interaction relationship.The projection tracing model based on genetic algorithm and catastrophe progression method are applied to the evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of resources and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality are analyzed.The coupling coordination model of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality is constructed to analyze the coupling coordination characteristics.To further reveal the dynamic evolution mechanism of the coupled coordination state of resource and environment carrying capacity and social development quality in Yangtze River Economic Belt,the traditional Markov model and weighted spatial Markov model are used to analyze the temporal evolution and spatial evolution mechanism,respectively.The kernel density estimation method and the Dagum Gini coefficient method are applied to analyze the characteristics of regional differences in the coupled coordination level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and their sources from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives.With the coupled coordination index as the explanatory variable,10 indicators are selected from two aspects of internal influencing factors and external influencing factors.The SDM model and GWR model are constructed respectively to analyze the global and local influence mechanisms on the coupled and coordinated level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality.Finally,countermeasure suggestions for the coordinated development of resources,environment and society in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are proposed,with a view to providing scientific references for guiding the coordinated development of resources,environment and society in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The main research findings of the thesis are as follows:(1)Construction of theoretical framework for the research of coupled coordination and impact mechanism of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development qualityThe concepts and theories related to the research of coupling and coordination of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality and influence mechanism are systematically sorted out.The connotations of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality are clarified."Background Assessment-Evolutionary Characteristics-Coupling Mechanism-Influence Mechanism-Coordinated Development",which is the research and analysis framework of coupling and coordination of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality and influence mechanism is constructed.It can provide a new research path for related research.(2)Evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics(1)From 2010 to 2019,both the resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a continuous growth trend,while the overall growth rate of social development quality is lower than that of the resource and environmental carrying capacity.(2)In terms of spatial distribution,the average value of resource and environmental carrying capacity shows the characteristics that downstream cities are higher than upstream cities and upstream cities are higher than midstream cities.The average value of social development quality shows the characteristics that downstream cities are higher than midstream cities and midstream cities are higher than upstream cities.(3)The results of global autocorrelation analysis show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation between resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,while the positive spatial correlation of social development quality is stronger than that of resource and environmental carrying capacity.The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis show that the aggregation significance of cities with strong or weak resource and environmental carrying capacity in Yangtze River Economic Zone has experienced a process of first weakening and then strengthening.The aggregation types are mostly H-H aggregation(high-high aggregation).The overall positive spatial correlation between the quality of social development is gradually weakening,and the phenomenon of "strong combination" and "weak aggregation" between cities still exists,but the difference between "strong" and "weak" is gradually narrowing.The reason for this phenomenon is related to the integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt and the goal and orientation of balanced regional development.(3)Coupling and coordination research of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality(1)In terms of coupling degree,the coupling degree of resource and environment carrying capacity and social development quality in Yangtze River Economic Belt has increased year by year during the research period.In terms of coupling coordination,the number of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt with mild dysfunctions has decreased significantly,while the number of cities with barely coordinated,primary coordinated and advanced coordinated types has increased.The spatial distribution shows a characteristic of "spreading from west to east".In terms of coupled coordination subtypes,the lagging type of reluctant coordination-resource and environment and the lagging type of primary coordination-resource and environment are dominant,accounting for more than half of the cities.The Yangtze River Economic Belt currently carries great pressure on its resources and the environment(2)The traditional Markov model and the weighted spatial Markov model were used to analyze the mechanism of temporal evolution and spatial evolution,respectively.The results show that the coupled and coordinated state of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is relatively stable,with a certain degree of path dependence and convergence characteristics toward advanced coordination.In addition,the coupling coordination degree shows a strong spatial spillover effect,and this spatial spillover effect is not a single positive spatial spillover and negative spatial spillover,but both of them.(3)Applying the kernel density estimation method and the Dagum Gini coefficient method to analyze the characteristics of regional differences in the coupled coordination level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and their sources from two perspectives,qualitative and quantitative.The results show that the kernel density function curves of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole,upstream,midstream and downstream have a right tail elongation,and the differences in regional coupling and coordination levels are expanding.As for the overall differences,the Gini coefficient shows a trend of "decrease-increase-decrease",and the coupling coordination level differences decrease overall,but the decrease is small and fluctuates greatly during the period.In terms of intra-basin variation,the largest intra-city variation in coupling coordination level is found in the downstream region.As for inter-basin differences,the coupling coordination level difference between upstream and downstream is the largest,and the stratification phenomenon of inter-basin differences is obvious,which indicates that there is obvious unevenness in the coupling coordination level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in Yangtze River Economic Belt.As for the sources and contributions of the differences,the contribution of the coupled coordination level differences in hypervariable density is always higher than the inter-basin contribution,and the inter-basin contribution is always higher than the intra-basin contribution,indicating that the regional differences mainly originate from hypervariable density.(4)Research on the impact mechanism of coupling and coordination between resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality(1)In terms of global influence mechanism,there are five factors that have significant influence on the coupling and coordination level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality: X2(per capita arable land resources),X9(per capita GDP),X10(the proportion of output value of secondary and tertiary industries),X12(the investment in environmental pollution control)and X13(R&D investment),among which,except X2(per capita arable land resources)is negatively correlated,the other four factors have positive marginal effects on the coupling index of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality.The most influential factor is X9(per capita GDP),followed by X10(the proportion of output value of secondary and tertiary industries)and X13(R&D investment).The regression coefficients of X1(per capita available water resources),X5(road network density),X10(proportion of output value of secondary and tertiary industries),X12(the investment in environmental pollution control)and X13(R&D investment)all show the characteristic of "high in the east and low in the west",indicating that these factors have a higher degree of influence on the level of coupling and coordination in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The factors with higher influence on the upstream areas are X2(per capita arable land resources),X3(per capita forest land resources),X8(drainage network density),X9(per capita GDP),and X14(fiscal expenditure ratio),which can be prioritized in the formulation of policies to improve the coupled and coordinated development of cities in different areas.(5)Suggestions for countermeasures for the coordinated development of resources,environment and society in the Yangtze River Economic ZoneThrough the previous analysis,the following problems still exist in the process of coordinated development of resources,environment and society in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: first,more than half of the cities have a mismatch between resource and environmental carrying capacity and quality of social development,and the carrying capacity of resources and environment mainly lags behind the quality of social development;second,the coupling and coordination level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and social development quality in many cities shows the trend of lowlevel spatial agglomeration;third,the effect of regional integration is not obvious,and the coupling and coordination level of upstream,middle reaches and downstream is quite different;fourth,the driving factor of coupling and coordination level is too single,and the endogenous driving force of coupling and coordination level is insufficient.Corresponding countermeasures are proposed for these problems. |
