Vulnerability Assessment Associated To Sea-Level Rise Impact On The Coastal Habitat Quality

The coastal zone is a transitional and connecting area between marine and terrestrial ecosystems.Land use changes and an increase in coastal risks cause it to deteriorate either directly or indirectly.One of the most accurate ways to interpret spatialtemporal variations is through modeling coastal land use/cover(LULC)change.The coastal regions of Guinea-Bissau have not yet undergone thorough multi-hazards assessment studies to better understand the coastal vulnerability index or quantitative assessment studies to clarify the present and future impacts of sea-level rise on coastal land use and habitat quality.As a result,this study is the first to combine the Digital Shoreline Analysis System(DSAS)and the Habitat Quality Model(HQM)and investigated the three variables that driven changes in coastal LULC between 1979 and 2020;The role of natural habitat in shoreline protection was improved by integrating eight bio-geophysical parameters into a Coastal Vulnerability Index(CVI)model;future Representative Concentration Pathway(RPC)scenarios were combined with local sea-level rise change rate data and predicted the impact of sea-level rise(SLR)on coastal land use and habitat quality between 2020 and 2080;We finally reviewed literatures and applied Coastal Blue Carbon(CBC)Model and proposed measures for coastal protection and climate change mitigation.The study discovered that coastal LULC in the NC-GB underwent significant changes between 1979 and 2020,and that these changes will continue.In the NC-GB,anthropogenic,coastal hazards in combination with physical factors were the primary drivers of coastal LULC change and habitat loss between 1979 and 2020.According to the study’s findings,coastal LULC conversions for residential and agricultural purposes induced saltmarsh to degrade from 38%in 1979 to 51%in 2020.Mangroves shown a notable improvement,from 12%to 5%degradation,respectively.According to the study,all of the shoreline in the studied area experienced geomorphological changes of 12.52%erosion and 39.61%accretion.The study came to the conclusion that the key factors influencing the impact of SLR were the low coastline elevation,which was less than 1 m below mean sea level,and the flat slope,which ranged from 0 to 5 degrees.Zone-A of the study area,however,showed to be more resilient than Zone-B and C because of its numerous natural habitats,which are essential in defending the shoreline from coastal hazards.The study concluded that in the next 60 years,developed land will be the most impacted coastal land use with 64%,followed by mangrove with 23%,and mixed forest the last with 12%.Such impact on developed lands will inevitably threaten socioeconomic development and food security in the region.The findings are expected to assist policymakers and coastal managers develop proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies that protect the coastal community and ecological environment from harmful coastal hazards.The current study can also offer a rationale and useful guide for ecological preservation to minimize the effects of climate.