Investigating The Coupling Interaction Between Water Resources Management And Sustainable Economic Development In Pakistan:a Simulation-based Approach

Water resource management for sustainable economic development is complex due to interactions and feedback between socio-economic,natural,and demographic factors.The linear-reductionist and mechanistic methods of studying and managing natural resource systems are inadequate for comprehending most environmental systems’ underlying dynamic complexity and unpredictability.This inadequacy is due to such systems’ tightly connected,feedback-driven,nonlinear,historydependent,adaptable,counterintuitive,and policy-resistant nature.Despite this knowledge,there is a dearth of dynamic models that incorporate a wide variety of physical,social,and economic aspects and feedback mechanisms in order to better understand the dynamic conduct of water resource systems and analyse the impact of different policy and management scenarios.Thus,it is necessary to use a simulation model of nonlinear system dynamics that takes into consideration the feedback effects between key drivers of the system.This study aimed to create a simulation model to aid in decision-making about the long-term management of Pakistan’s water resources and the country’s economic growth.This goal was attained by employing a systems-based/systems-thinking theoretical framework and a systems dynamics technique as the ideal modelling tool to represent the time-varying behaviour of important system variables.The study used a two-pronged strategy that combined quantitative and qualitative methodologies.Our first step was to identify the critical system drivers,components,and processes that influence the sustainability of the water resource infrastructure using a group-building modelling approach.The integration of a qualitative conceptual model depicting the causal systemic feedback mechanisms working between the system’s biophysical,environmental,socio-economic drivers required contributions from the system expert,local stakeholders,NGOs,government,and commercial consultants.The conceptual model served as the basis for the development of a formal quantitative simulation model,which was simulated using a system dynamics technique.This permitted identification and testing of several policy scenarios and techniques for sustainable water resources management for economic growth.In addition to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario,eight additional policy scenarios,including investment in water infrastructure,the anticipation of water scarcity or dry conditions,Kashmir conflict escalation,and economic development growth,were designed and simulated to explore different alternative futures.Moreover,the model integrates the Water-Energy-Food(WEF)Nexus approach to explore the interdependencies among water,energy,and food to evaluate the effects of changes in critical food drivers on sustainable water resource management.The ultimate goal is to ensure sustainable management of water resources and food security and to foster economic growth in Pakistan.Improved comprehension of the ripple effect of decisions made in one sector is gained by anticipating the potentials and syncing cross-sector knowledge in order to develop,evaluate,and prioritize alternative possibilities.By analyzing the interdependencies and feedback loops within this system,the model identified more effective and sustainable strategies for managing water resources and mitigating the impacts of climate change,population growth,and other environmental stressors on the WEF nexus for economic development.The findings suggest that policies that directly affect agricultural water consumption significantly impact the water stress index,followed by improvements in water supply infrastructure.This emphasizes the need to give more consideration to water demand-side management as a cost-effective method for achieving water resource sustainability.Climate change significantly impacts the WEF index and can not be mitigated fully,but it can be written off or minimized by applying loss control policies in water,food and energy subsystems.This study provides a deeper knowledge of Pakistan’s water resource system’s feedback structure and dynamic behaviour in response to shifting environmental and socio-economic conditions.Theoretically,this research expands systems approaches by emphasizing interconnectedness and complexity,as opposed to previous linear reductionist approaches.The integrated conceptual and simulation models established in this study give stakeholders,such as local farmers,NGOs,and policymakers,decision-support tools for the sustainable management of water resources at the country scale.Methodologically,this is one of the handfuls of studies that employ systems thinking and system dynamics as a modelling tool to comprehend the dynamics of water resource management systems in Pakistan,so providing a significant contribution to this field and stimulating new research in this area.