| Climate change will directly diversify the electricity demand with uncertainty,which will increase the risk of grid operation and seriously affect the stability of its operation.Therefore,clearing the fluctuation characteristics of electricity consumption with climate change is particularly important for load management.As the second largest economy in the world,China's energy consumption model has always been the focus of the world.In order to explore the cyclical pattern of its electricity consumption and capture the behavior characteristics of its electricity consumers futher,this article attempts to explore the influences of extreme climate change on China's electricity and energy demand fluctuation from the perspective of extreme climate change.By selecting panel data from 90 prefecture-level cities in China from 1989 to 2017,we build an econometric model for the impact of extreme weather on urban residential energy demand firstly,and verify the accuracy of the results through stability tests secondly,and use the mediating effect model to test the impact of climate change on urban residential power consumption thirdly,and finally,we aim to explore the electricity market fluctuations caused by extreme climate changes in the global world by selecting Singapore,the United Kingdom,and the United States for comparison.The results show that(1)the emergence of extreme high-temperature weather has a positive effect on residential electricity consumption.The reason is that residents gradually increase their preference for electricity demand and urban workers have a demand for space cooling when hot weather comes,and electricity is the main way to cool down,which in turn increases the demand for electric energy.(2)The emergence of extreme low-temperature weather has negatively affected urban residential electricity consumption.The reason is that the combination of space heating is diverse and residents reduce their preference for electricity demand in extremely cold weather,at the same time,the extreme low-temperature weather occurred during the Chinese New Year,and the "empty nest effect" caused by a large number of migrant workers returned to the country,leading to a sharp decline in urban energy consumption.This estimation result further validates the basic conclusion that our country relies heavily on migrant workers for urban construction and development in the process of urbanization,but these migrant workers have not truly realized citizenization.(3)In the same area,the positive effect of extreme high temperature weather is stronger than the negative effect of extreme low temperature weather,and the total effect of extreme weather is positive.When extreme weather occurs,the amount of electricity consumption will change more,the electricity consumption of our residents will increase by 412.54 k Wh,which is equivalent to a continuous operation of an air conditioner with a cooling power of 1000 W for 17.2 days.(4)There are different topography,climate,and economic development levels in Singapore,the United Kingdom,the United States and China,and their influence mechanism affected by extreme weather is different.However,the fluctuations in electricity consumption caused by extreme weather in various countries cannot be ignored.And this caused a series of problems,peak consumption caused large-scale power outages;when demand is low,a large number of idle power resources make the cost of power generation and supply increase.Therefore,this article has a strong reference value for the subsequent regional power network construction and industry development plan.The government and relevant stakeholders should pay attention to the impact of extreme weather changes on power consumption demand,so as to ensure the steady progress of economic development.At present,countries around the world attach great importance on climate change,various countries have taken different measures in response to climate change,these advanced experiences are worth learning from. |
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