| The consequences for social systems of recent innovations in ecological theory are examined. Economic models that address issues of path dependence, multiple equilibria, boom and bust, and increasing returns are reviewed, and are used to highlight parallel concepts and useful bridges to ecological literature. Existing models of path dependence are frequently incomplete in that they do not address the dynamics of escape from lock-in, nor do they rigorously model the problem of human responses to multiple equilibria when there are welfare losses at stake. Many of the models use the concept of bounded rationality to understand the complexities of human behavior.;Despite the subtleties of managing complicated resource systems, human behavior is often rigid and conservative, while ecologists and economists suggest that it should be flexible and adaptive. Reliability theory is used to examine the consequences of a competence-difficulty gap between the ability of agents to choose management actions for particular situations and the level of uncertainty they face in recognizing those situations when they arise. It is found that rigid behavior may outcompete flexible behavior under certain conditions.;In uncertain environments, people rely on the opinions and knowledge of others to supplement their own incomplete knowledge or to substantiate or invalidate their beliefs. When social proof is important in determining beliefs, a dual belief model is useful in sudden shifts in public opinion. People hold beliefs privately, and they express them publicly if they believe they will be supported by public opinion. Otherwise, they may suppress or falsify their private beliefs. When people estimate public opinion by relying on those closest to them (in their local neighborhood) instead of in the public at large, there can be a wide variety of equilibria for public opinion.;Moderately complex theories about ecosystem structure and function stress the importance of spatial and temporal patterns of change at multiple scales, and permit a diversity of views about the relationship between humans and nature. This creates a set of problems for institutional design, and opens up opportunities for political maneuvering and strategizing, particularly when the distribution of gains from institutional change are unequally distributed. Because there is a wide range of beliefs which are compatible with ecological realities, the social construction of ecological crisis is as important for institutional change as are objective measures of crisis. |
