| In an attempt to follow Moore's Law, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) scheduled a transition to a 450mm wafer from the current 300mm wafer size to be realized by 2012, despite the lack of consensus in the semiconductor industry on the necessity for such a shift. An industry change to the 450mm wafer size will differ from previous wafer transitions, incurring immense financial burdens. Opponents have alternatively suggested an improvement and enhancement of the current 300mm generation, referred to as 300mm Prime, as another attempt at keeping with Moore's Law.;For this study, both current and short-term future changes in the semiconductor ecosystem are analyzed and employed to project the economic consequences of adopting and adapting new/different manufacturing approaches (300mm Prime strategy) rather than to continue to extrapolate historical trends (moving to larger wafer size: 450mm) in semiconductor manufacturing.;In the new reality, factors such as time to market, time to volume, time to yield, and cycle time---interacting with one another through the semiconductor ecosystem---are playing a pivotal role in determining the success/competitive advantages of the future fab. The development of models is required to better understand the influence as well as to integrate all the variable factors into bottom line fab profit for different business and manufacturing scenarios, which, in the end, will indicate that the movement to 450mm is not necessarily the ultimate path for the industry as a whole. The 300mm Prime strategy should be considered in the near-term. The improvements achieved with 300mm Prime could provide a scalable bridge to the next wafer size with lower transitional risks.;Economic, marketing, technological, and manufacturing data from the 200mm wafer diameter era are compared to data from the 300mm wafer diameter era. The data shows a significant difference in the way "business" was conducted in the two eras. Analysis of the interactions and constraints between the major driving forces in the industry (market, technology, manufacturing, and economic) indicate the dramatic differences between eras and prove that the industry has undergone a significant paradigm shift in the semiconductor ecosystem. |
