Measurement Analysis On The Influence Of Government Policy To The Macro Economy

In April 4th of 2007, American second largest subprime mortgage enterprise, new century financial corporation, applied to Wilmington federal court for the bankruptcy protection, which marked the beginning of American subprime credit crisis. After Lehman Brothers'application of bankruptcy protection in September 15th of 2008, American subprime credit crisis got further aggravated and affected major financial markets, including American, European Union, Japanese. At the same time, it accelerated the extension from major financial markets to emerging financial markets, from developed countries to emerging countries.In the process of answering the financial crisis, the affirmative fiscal policy and slack monetary policy implemented by Chinese government inspired the market's confidence and remitted the economic recession, which had indelible influence on Chinese economy recovery. However, some scholars concerned that possibly it would cause the inflation in future. Actually, under the situation of global financial crisis, government also faced the hard decision whether to"help markets". Just under such a real surrounding, it's of realistic significance to research on the Chinese economic policy (fiscal policy and monetary policy), macroeconomic economy, and especially the impacts on the economy growth and price.According to the macroeconomic index theory, I firstly chose gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) to describe the macroeconomic situation quantificationally. Secondly, I analyzed these three variables by time series method to get the result that they were seasonal and then set ARIMA( p , d , q ) model. Thirdly, for the fiscal and monetary policy issued by Chinese government to answer the financial crisis in 2008, I chose government budget expenditure, money supply and newly increased credit limit to describe the government economic policy quantificationally. Among these six variables, I used Granger causality relationship test and Johansen co-integration analysis on each two variables, figuring out that GDP had no significant causality relationships with government budget expenditure, money supply, newly increased credit limit respectively, but in long-term co-integration relationships were significant and positively related. Meanwhile, with government budget expenditure, money supply and newly increased credit limit, Chinese price indices, CPI and PPI, not only owned significant double causality relationship, but also appeared long-term positively co-integration relationship. Based on these, I established VEC model among government budget expenditure, money supply and GDP, CPI, PPI and set VAR model among newly increased credit limit and GDP, CPI, PPI by index integration.