Simulation On The Low-carbon Economic Development Of The Pithead Power Plant Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid expansion of the global population, the continuous development of the industrial economy, human intensive economy based on carbon-based energy resources and energy development, the main greenhouse gas, the increasingly serious environmental problems. Acid rain, bad weather, smoke and other issues are increasingly becoming the focus of attention of academics and politicians, there is no doubt that global climate change caused by greenhouse gas problem has been recognized as an indisputable fact. British economist Stern pointed out that in the2006study:annually the globe spend1%of the world GDP on the costs, saving5%of the world GDP on the control cost of resources and the environment (mainly the reduction of greenhouse gas).Low-carbon economy is the economic development of a future form, its essence is to reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions, improve energy efficiency, promote energy and low carbon development, establish a healthy and effective energy low-carbon economy. The study, standing on the height of the combination of theoretical and practical, the systematic study of the common characteristics of the coal and electricity enterprise management, the basic cycle of the current economic situation. On this basis, taking Zhongping pithead power plant for example, a detailed investigation of low-carbon development status of the pithead power plant, various resources in the specific course of business use of the Current Situation, the establishment of the pithead power plant system of low-carbon economic development kinetic model, the dynamic simulation of a different development model, to select the most suitable model for pithead power plant low-carbon development; to develop low-carbon development of pithead power plant control and optimization for the specific mode of development and development goals, as well as an effective way to achieve its objectives. The research mainly includes the following five parts:1. The analysis of the current situation and existing problems of low-carbon economic development of pithead power plantIn-depth analysis of the international development trend of the thermoelectric air-conditioning heat and power projects, the current development status of China, identify gaps, and identify the future direction of the thermoelectric air-conditioning heat and power projects for the scientific enterprise, rational development of long-term development planning before rainy days. Use of input-output analysis pithead power plant construction has environmental benefits of slime, coal gangue and waste consumption as well as their economic benefits as a raw material consumption, and a quantitative estimate of the social benefits of the enterprise based on the contribution of social development and employment.2. Build a low-carbon economy evaluation index system of pithead power plantAccording to characteristics of the pithead power plant energy resources, the link characteristics of environmental pollution, from low-carbon economy, carbon consumption, low-carbon energy, three perspectives on low-carbon impact of elements of the pithead power plant analyzed in this basis to build pithead power plant evaluation index system of low-carbon economic development of specific indicators to analyze and identify indicators standard.3. Establishing the pithead power plant low-carbon economic system dynamics modelFirst, clear pithead power plant low-carbon economy system boundaries considers the main pithead power plant low-carbon economic development, as well as closely related to pollution emissions and resource using, without involving the external environment. The pithead power plant low-carbon economy system is divided into subsystems for economic development, resource utilization subsystem, low-carbon environment subsystem; Then, within the various sub-systems and their mutual relations is to find the causal loop of pithead power plant low-carbon economy; Finally, establish pithead power plant low-carbon economic system dynamics model, and write the equation of each variable.4. Simulation and control of the Pingmei Group pithead power plant low-carbon economyPingmei Group pithead power plant simulation is based on the above Pithead power plant low-carbon economy system dynamics model. First of all, analysis Pingmei Group pithead power plant historical data, assignment of system parameters, and model validation must be done; Then Pingdingshan Group pithead power plant in the current circumstances of low-carbon economic system simulation based on the current situation the simulation results are analyzed by changing the control parameters, the other designed three different programs, respectively, to simulate a comparative analysis of economic indicators under the different programs, energy consumption indicators and low carbon environmental indicators.5. The path and the specific measures of the pithead power plant low-carbon developmentIn accordance with the above simulation results and quantitative assessment to develop the specific objectives of the pithead power plant low-carbon development, and provide the appropriate means of implementation.In this paper, it is the first time starting from a low-carbon economy perspective, combined with the development status of Chinese electric power energy thermal power industry, the use of computer simulation technology, system dynamics theory, energy economics theory, the theory of the mechanism of circular economy and clean energy, industrial development and other related theories and Mouth Power Plant low-carbon economic development status on the basis of the comprehensive evaluation to build a system dynamics model of the pithead power plant low-carbon economy, the simulation Pingmei Group pithead power plant, for example, the following conclusions:1. One seen through a comprehensive evaluation of the2009-2013Pingmei Group pithead power plant low-carbon economic development:2009-2013pithead power plant the quality of low-carbon economy is steadily improving, but the slowdown in the growth trend after2012, mainly due to:the pithead power plant before2012has yet to conduct a comprehensive energy conservation measures, skills emission reduction potential and actively promote the green enterprise and green development ideas after2012, due to the pithead power plant, power plant carbon development achieved remarkable results. Therefore, the pithead power plant at the same time maintain the current low-carbon path of development, low-carbon economic development needs to break the traditional thoughts of the emission reduction, improving energy efficiency, adjusting energy structure, and improve and perfect the management system of low-carbon development ruthless efforts in order to break through the bottleneck of low-carbon development by leaps and bounds on the Boulevard to create a green low-carbon businesses.2. The analysis of low-carbon economy of Pingmei Group pithead power plant simulation results in the current circumstances Pingmei Group pithead power plant at a loss most cases. Although the total value of production is increasing year by year, but growth is slow, but corporate profits are negative in most cases; in the gross production, power generation output the largest proportion, but the ratio is declining, close to80%by2020; bricklaying output value, the proportion increases every year, more than14.7%by2020; minimum heating output value, its share is increasing year and by year2020it reaches more than5%;, Pingdingshan Group pithead power plant should be increased generating capacity, power generation output value, thereby increasing enterprise efficiency. Generating capacity is relatively reduced year by year, the total amount of enterprise energy consumption with a smaller rate increases every year, including energy to waste about50%of the total energy consumption; can further increase the proportion of waste rock consumption, reduce or even stop low quality of coal consumption, lower energy costs, and improve corporate profits. In the emission of pollutants, Pingmei Group pithead power plant control is better, but need to further strengthen the emission control of carbon dioxide.3. By comparing four different programs Pingmei Group pithead power plant low-carbon economy system simulation results analysis, Pingdingshan Group pithead power plant low-carbon economic development status is not the most desirable, enterprise development, low-carbon economy is to at the same time ensure the economic efficiency of enterprises, in the process of reducing the high-carbon energy consumption, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon economic development programs, Pingdingshan Group pithead power plant according to the different simulation results of the program can adjust the energy structure, namely, increasing the proportion of waste rock use to reduce the proportion of low-quality coal consumption, reduce energy costs through the change and combination of the control parameters; while increasing investment in technology and investment in environmental protection, energy efficiency and pollution control coefficient, and control a variety of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions, and ultimately to achieve the harmonious development of the power plant low-carbon economy.4. Through the establishment of the system dynamics model of the pithead power plant low-carbon economy, the Pingdingshan Group pithead power plant, low-carbon economic development simulation, drawn low-carbon economic development of pithead power plant control measures should be from the following aspects:First of all, from the energy input to further strengthening the management of the energy system, production process improvements, energy restructuring; Secondly, to increase such as energy-efficient management information systems, boiler blow down, water and green lighting and other power plant energy-saving technology the project’s efforts to promote; again, to further strengthen anti-pollution power plant pollution control, environmental management; Finally, build a good external environment of the carbon reduction and increase of carbon emission reduction technology to improve technology and equipment introduction.