Study On Formation Mechanism And Early Warning Of Passenger Emergency Mass Incidents In The Flight Delays Situation

Because of the increase of people’s livelihood and the acceleration of living rhythm civil aviation has become one of the main transportation methods owing to its comfort ability and fast speed. While civil aviation is in its fast development phase, flight delay often occurs due to the lack of transportation capacity of airline companies and other reasons such as weather, traffic control in the air, air safety and so on. Flight delay causes mismatch of transport service resources, and affect travel plans of passengers, service quality of air transport and enterprise image of air transport. Because of flight delay information lack of transparency and sharing, no emergency disposal and timely guidance scheme which lead to passenger group incident and bring negative effects to aviation safety. This dissertation integrated using the catastrophe theory, evolutionary game, social network analysis, systems theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together. The paper research content mainly includes following several aspects:The first part expounds the causes of flight delays firstly, including airlines, weather, air traffic control, passengers and other reasons; Secondly describes the connotation and characteristics of the passenger emergency caused by flight delays and then, based on the previous research, we discusses the causation factor of the passenger mass incidents caused by flight delays from the four aspects:"People-Air Environment-Management" respectively;The second part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers’emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on catastrophe theory. The analysis concludes the external environment and internal environment for the development. Mutation model is studied for the prevention and control of passengers’emergency mass incidents. By controlling the changes in the external environmental factors H and internal environment factors M, so that it falls on the stable region in order to prevent the system state over the potential mutation region event of an emergency.The third part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers’emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on evolutionary game theory. The evolutionary game process between airlines and passengers is analyzed. The decisions of individual passengers will be affected by the group game strategies in the process of multiple games under the existing civil aviation market compensation mechanism. The countermeasures of passengers’emergency mass incidents in the context of flight delays are proposed from the view of maximizing social benefits based on the strategic balance of evolutionary game. The diffusion model of passengers’ emergency mass incidents is built based on the analysis of evolutionary game of emergency mass incidents.The fourth part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers’emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on social network analysis (SNA). The structural characteristics of the network groups, relationships and the exchange of knowledge sharing are analyzed in the perspectives o f network density, distance, centrality and cohesive subgroup. The depth of interaction is analyzed with content analysis method as an auxiliary. The network spreading strategies of passengers’ emergency mass incidents are proposed based on SNA, including the building of multi-center parallel network structure, the weak links of the network structure and the enhancement of the core network effect.The fifth part, the internal and external alert sources which would cause passenger emergency mass incidents, and the relationship between them are researched based on the causation mechanism of passenger emergency mass incidents. On the basis of the theory of group psychology, this dissertation analyzed the formation mechanism of passenger emergency incidents, and built the early warning system of passenger emergency mass incidents in the case of non-linear flight delay, and proposed emergency plan for dealing with the passenger emergency mass incidents, including relieving the negative emotions of passengers by affective strategies, establishing the emergency warning linkage mechanism between airlines, civil airports and air traffic control departments, improving the administrative regulations of flight delays compensation standards and innovating the learning mechanism to cope with passenger emergency incidents in airline and airport.